The Democratic Race Goes On

RALEIGH — With a solid win in Tuesday night’s New Hampshire primary, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has clinched both of the most-watched political contests of any presidential campaign. Unless I simply dozed through the presidencies of Pat Buchanan, Gary Hart, and John McCain (come to think of it, I’ve been asleep for something like a third of the past two decades) New Hampshire does not deserve its reputation for picking American chief executives.

But surely it counts for something that John Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire, in both cases fairly convincingly against former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (our own Sen. John Edwards coming in much closer to Kerry a week ago but failing to challenge him in New Hampshire). Yes, it counts for something. It does not count for everything, however.

The Democratic presidential race goes on. Next Tuesday, February 3, a field of four viable candidates will compete in seven states stretching from the East Coast over to the Plains and down to the American South and Southwest. While the media coverage and campaign events have focused almost exclusively on the first two contests in the past few weeks, you can’t say the same thing about the serious campaigns. They’ve been lining up endorsements, making ad buys, signing up volunteers, collecting cash, and making occasional campaign stops.

What’s interesting about this “Mini-Tuesday” set of primaries is that they span the regional and ideological spectrums and give each of the candidates at least a chance of winning a battle. Right now, as I write this, it looks like Kerry will win 15 delegates out of New Hampshire and Dean will snag 7. That means that the caucus and primary delegate count (that is, not including super-delegates) going into February 3 is Kerry with 34, Edwards with 18, and Dean with 15.

According to early polls, campaign efforts, and media reports, here’s one way to think about the upcoming contests:

* Delaware (15 pledged delegates). Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut was running fairly well in this small Mid-Atlantic State, but his fifth-place showing in New Hampshire will surely cause some supporters to rethink wasting their vote on a candidacy going nowhere. I suspect that Dean may have a shot at winning here, though if it’s the only win next Tuesday it will be embarrassingly small.

* South Carolina (45 delegates). Having come in a hot second in Iowa but a tepid fourth in New Hampshire –albeit representing a strong improvement from the 3 percent to 5 percent frigidity of just weeks ago — Edwards must win his native state of South Carolina to stay in the race. Because of the state’s placement in past calendars, the news media has been fixating on it to an odd degree. It’s only the third-largest delegate prize next week. Expect attention to wander somewhat westward if Edwards continues to lead in next week’s polls. A win will still help him a lot, but it won’t be enough by itself to stop Kerry.

* Missouri (74 delegates). This is the biggest prize of the night, and offers perhaps the greatest possibility for surprises given that the field had conceded the state to Richard Gephardt before his campaign imploded in Iowa. Both Kerry and Edwards have scooped up some support from Gephardt’s folks, but that’s about all one can go on right now. The early polls were warped by the Gephardt factor and the fact that Wesley Clark looked like the anti-Dean a few weeks ago. He’s not that now. Missouri Democrats are actually somewhat comparable in temperment and competitiveness to North Carolina Democrats, so my gut feeling is that Edwards has a chance to upset Kerry here, with Dean playing the odd man out.

* Oklahoma (40 delegates). Crucial state for Edwards and Clark. The former has campaigned in the state, stressing his small-town roots, and its Democratic electorate is relatively moderate. But Clark was leading in two recent statewide polls, with Edwards somewhat ahead of Kerry for second place.

* Arizona (55 delegates). This state is already moving Kerry’s way with Dean and Clark tied for second. Dean will try to take advantage of the urban Phoenix vote here but I don’t think it will be enough. Edwards is lagging behind here and probably won’t be much of a factor.

* New Mexico (26 delegates). This caucus is Dean’s second-likeliest place to pull off a win, after Delaware. Unfortunately for him, it’s also like Delaware in boasting few delegates. Clark is making a major play for this state, too.

* North Dakota (14 delegates). This is a caucus where the candidates appear not to have put much money or effort. Perhaps they were ceding it to midwestern Gephardt. My sense is that it will continue not to attract much attention, perhaps allowing the national momentum from Kerry’s two wins to score another one.

So it seems to me that if John Kerry is to be stopped from getting the nomination, it would have to happen in one of three ways: 1) Howard Dean would have to win Delaware and New Mexico and pull off a surprise somewhere else, like Arizona; 2) John Edwards would have to add victories in Oklahoma and Missouri to his expected win in South Carolina, setting up a two-man race; or 3) Wes Clark would have to recover his footing and win Oklahoma, Arizona, and New Mexico.

I don’t see Kerry getting skunked next week. He’ll win in some places. If he wins in most places, it’s probably all over but the screaming, which is probably all over, too, and thankfully so.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.