RALEIGH — Rumors are flying around North Carolina that Sen. John Edwards is the frontrunner for the vice presidential pick of Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. Some versions of the story even have Edwards essentially waiting by the phone for The Call, to come within weeks or days.
There are plenty of reasons to disbelieve these rumors. On the Edwards pick itself, recent experience doesn’t offer much evidence for the propositions his partisans are advancing. For one thing, when is the last time that a presidential nominee made an obvious, high-probability pick? They’ve mostly tried misdirection — announcing an unanticipated choice to increase the news value and shake up the dynamics of the race. That’s how we got Dan Quayle, Gerraldine Ferraro, Lloyd Bentsen, Jack Kemp, and Dick Cheney.
Then there’s the notion that presidents pick vice presidents primarily to ensure that the latter’s state is in play in the general election, or to provide regional balance to the ticket to maximize the number of battleground states. This strategy sounds plausible, heck it may be a good idea, but it hasn’t made an appearance in a very long time. Bill Clinton picked Al Gore, a fellow Southerner. Cheney hails from an inherently Republican state. So did Quayle. Ronald Reagan picked George H.W. Bush for ideological balance and party cohesion, not his Texas — or was it New England? — appeal. Similarly, Gore picked Joe Lieberman as a surprise and for ideological balance (and possibly ethnicity).
Still, I don’t know what to believe about this latest Edwards boomlet. I stick by my now-aged assessment that he is Kerry’s best pick. He brings charisma, campaign ability, and, apparently, fundraising prowess to the ticket. If North Carolina’s economy continues to lag the rest of the region in recovery, keeping Bush’s margin in the polls here in the single digits, it’s not inconceivable that Edwards on the ticket might at least force the Bush-Cheney team to pay attention and spend money in North Carolina.
As to the notion that Kerry might not wait until July to announce his pick, Edwards or not, there are also some discernible pros and cons. On the one hand, the news media is currently dwelling on the 9/11 commission report, violence in Iraq, and Bill Clinton’s new book. Is this really the time for John Kerry to try to make big news?
On the other hand, maybe this is exactly the right time. Wall-to-wall Clinton isn’t likely to help Kerry much right now. And all the talk about the Clinton administration and al Qaeda focuses attention on a lack of real preparation or action against terrorist threats during the 1990s, a story line that clashes with the partisan one Kerry needs to tell.
Indeed, a new Pew Research Center poll shows an uptick in support for President Bush and increasing optimism about the war in Iraq as the front-page coverage of prison torture and a Shiite insurgency fade from view. Now might be the time for some news from Kerry to draw attention back to his campaign and his rationnale for picking someone new. In particular, if he chooses not to run against Bush on the war and instead emphasizes domestic issues such as health care, job loss, or poverty, Edwards would be an asset.
I think I’ll keep a close eye on the news wires.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.