RALEIGH – The 2005 election cycle has been overshadowed by hurricanes, wars, judicial confirmations, and the prospect of additional Tom Cruise progeny. I’ll let readers rank these events according to their own sense of significance or alarm, though in my mind there’s no doubt which is the most risky business.
It’s unfortunate but understandable that the immediate political horizon hasn’t gotten more sustained gazing. At the national level, it is not a presidential or congressional cycle, so the major races of import are a couple of gubernatorial races, some statewide initiatives, and a few key mayoral match-ups in big cities. Here in North Carolina, even most of the major-city mayoral races are either foregone conclusions or feature seemingly safe incumbents.
But there are some uncertainties. What I find striking is that for all the obvious problems facing the national Republican Party, its prospects in 2005 contests aren’t bad. The two gubernatorial races both feature open seats being defended by Democrats against solid Republican challengers. In Virginia, Republican Jerry Kilgore, a former attorney general, has maintained a modest lead over Democrat Tim Kaine, the lieutenant governor. In some ways, this contest – one of the closest gubernatorial races in Virginia in years – is a proxy war between the forces of Republican George Allen, the current senator and former governor who’s considered a presidential run in 2008, and Democrat Mark Warner, the current governor who’s also been on some short lists for the national ticket.
In New Jersey, it’s the Democratic nominee – Sen. Jon Corzine – who has maintained a single-digit lead over the Republican, Doug Forrester, who previously ran for U.S. Senate. Political observers thought just a couple of months ago that the deep-pocketed Corzine had the race in the bag, but now it appears surprisingly competitive.
Another out-of-state contest worth watching is in California, where Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is not on the ballot but might as well be. He’s putting his credibility on the line with a set of ballot initiatives to 1) end use of mandatory union dues for political purposes unless workers consent to the practice, 2) transfer redistricting authority from state lawmakers to an independent panel, and 3) put a modest cap on state spending growth. Current polls show leads for all three Schwarzenegger-backed measures – plus a useful reform of the state’s teacher-tenure laws – but such leads have a tendency to evaporate on Election Day thanks to last-minute expenditures by special interests.
Here in North Carolina, there are some local elections and ballot items worth watching, too, including spirited mayoral races in Wilmington, Asheville, Fayetteville, and other cities. I’ll provide a run-down in a subsequent column.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.