RALEIGH – Yesterday I wrote about 14 races where the Democrats and Republicans will be fighting it out for control of the North Carolina Senate. Today, I’ve jotted down some thoughts about 30 races likely to attract the most attention as the two parties battle for the 61 seats (at least) they will need to control the North Carolina House.

Given the large number of competitive races – oh, what a horrible gerrymander those scheming Republican judges have given us! – I can’t afford the space to get into a lot ofdetail. But I hope this gives you a useful thumbnail sketch of the elections to watch this fall.

Down East

After looking at both the district demographics and the candidate filings, I see six House races in play along the central coast and the traditional “Down East” counties stretching from Nash to Duplin. Four are toss-ups and two are competitive due to specific conditions.

In House 3, incumbent Democrat Alice Graham Underhill (daughter of Bill Graham, the longtime Agriculture Commission before the job became a stepping-stone to jail or political infamy) must defend what is now a moderately Republican seat in Craven and Pamlico counties against one of three GOP candidates. Tough row to hoe.

In House 4 (Pitt and Martin counties) it’s the Republicans who are fighting an uphill battle, given the voter numbers, but at least it’s an open seat. Retired school administrator Charles Johnson of Greenville gets the Democratic nod against Republican John Wobbleton of Williamston. The latter will play up the local angle, as Martin County would end up without a hometown representative if he loses.

Another Greenville-area district, the 9th, is a toss-up with Democrat Marian McLawhorn facing Republican Judy Eagle. McLawhorn gets a slight tilt here as an incumbent in a district with a well-organized Democratic base vote.

To the south and west, Districts 10 and 11 are also toss-ups. In the former, Democrat Russell Tucker can count on financial support from the local pork producers (they helped him defeat an incumbent Republican back in 1998 to get in office in the first place) but he has to fight off two primary challengers and, quite possibly, former Lenoir school board member and Republican Dickey Jarman. Location is one of Tucker’s problems; Kinston will want hometown representation in the House, but they won’t get it with Duplin County’s Tucker.

In Wayne County’s 11th District, House Majority Leader Dick Baddour is in a toss-up district with either of two fairly well-known Republicans, Mt. Olive Mayor and former legislator Louis Pate or businessman and previous candidate Willie Ray Starling. This is probably a must-win for a GOP majority, and it won’t be easy to defeat a sitting party leader.

Finally, in Nash County’s 25th District, businessman Bill Daughtridge is the likely Republican nominee against Democrat Mary Alice Wells, who is in the dry-cleaning business and tried to unseat retiring Rep. Gene Arnold a time or two. The GOP odds are good here.

Southeastern NC

Two toss-ups and a leaner are in play in and around the Jacksonville-Wilmington area. The new 16th District, primarily in Pender County, has attracted a passel of candidates. Former Topsail Town Council member Jack Barnes, Pender County Commissioner F.D. Rivenbark, and Dwight Strickland are seeking the Democratic nomination. Pender Commissioner Carolyn Justice will likely defeat David Greene for the Republican nod.

In Onslow’s 14th District, county GOP chairman George Cleveland is the likely nominee to face Democratic businessman Harry Brown. Onslow is trending more Republican, but a high minority population and the impact of military voters cause the outcome to be uncertain.

And in Brunswick and New Hanover counties, House Appropriations Co-chair DavidRedwine will face a strong challenge for his 17th District seat from Southport attorney Bonner Stiller. The district is now moderately Republican, but if anyone can hold out against the tide, it’s Redwine.

Wake County

Two seats are in play: the open 34th, where accountant and attorney Don Munford and former airline pilot Al Nunn are the primary aspirants for the Republican slot against Democratic newcomer Julie Paul; and the 35th, where incumbent Democrat Jennifer Weiss will likely face Republican Darryl Black. I am particularly surprised that state Democrats did not recruit a more experienced candidate in the 34th, which is a toss-up district full of state and university employees. With Weiss, voters may see a diligent and intelligent lawmaker who is just a bit too liberal for this moderate district, but it depends on how the campaigns play out.

Sandhills

The Battle for Fayetteville, as I termed this set of competitive districts a while back, promises to be a doozy. In the 41st District in northern Cumberland and southern Harnett counties, Republican Mia Morris may be the most endangered GOP incumbent in the state against Margaret Highsmith Dickson, who has been the semi-official Democratic candidate in this district for months.

On the other hand, Republicans have recruited two credible candidates – former Fayetteville City Council member Don Talbot and attorney Michael Stone – to run against Democratic school board member Rick Glazier in the open 44th District in western Cumberland. And in the 45th District in southern Cumberland, yet another toss-up, Democratic incumbent Alex Warner must fend off radiology technician Robert Lawrence in a district that has fallen well below 50 percent Democratic registration, the traditional sign of competitiveness.

Meanwhile, in most of Harnett County the open 53rd district has a crowded primary, with three Democrats and two Republicans having filed. I think we’ll see former Superior Court Judge Sam Stephenson, a Democrat, take on Harnett County Commission Chairman Teddy Byrd in November, with Byrd having the edge.

And the remaining western sliver of Harnett County joins with Lee and part of Moore to form the 51st District, where incumbent Democrat Leslie Cox will enjoy an advantage based on voter registration. The reason the race is competitive is that the Republican candidate will be John Sauls, vice chairman of the Lee County Commission.

Triad/Piedmont

In Guilford’s 59th District, longtime Democratic incumbent Maggie Jeffus has a lot of new territory to defend against either Republican Patrick Tillman or Alan Hawkes, a local builder. It will be somewhat of an uphill climb for the GOP, but not out of reach.

Just to the east in Alamance County, a new 63rd District is moderately Democratic but competitive without an incumbent. Jerry Doss (a former chair of the school board), Mebane councilwoman Alice Bordsen, and former clerk of court Wiley Wooten are all strong candidates. The Republican is Graham attorney Robert Sharpe.

Heading back to the southwest of Greensboro, you find Democrat Hugh Holliman in the 81st District of Davidson County. He will face a strong Republican challenge from Lexington City Councilman John Walser. Very much a toss-up.

To the northwest of the Triad, in Surry and Alleghany counties, a moderately Republican open seat, the 90th, has drawn a lot of interest. It seems likely that Mt. Airy town commissioner Todd Harris will get the Democratic nomination against one of two former Republican county commissioners, Buck Golding or Melvin Jackson. This is a majority-Democrat district in registration but many conservative Democrats vote Republican here (it went for Vinroot in 2000).

And in between the Piedmont Triad and Charlotte, Rowan’s 77th District will feature a rematch between Democratic incumbent Lorene Coates and Republican Charlotte Gardner, whom Coates defeated two years ago. The new 77th District is slightly more Democratic than it was last time, though.

Charlotte Area

While none of the districts in Charlotte proper is in play this year (the Republicans having failed to challenge Democrat Drew Saunders in northeastern Mecklenburg), several surrounding counties can boast real races. To the east in Stanly County, Republican incumbent Bobby Barbee should be OK except that his opponent is former Democratic legislator Max Melton. This makes it at least interesting.

On the other side of the metro, in Gaston County, the new 109th District will likely pit school board member John Eaker, a Democrat, against either Gaston County Commissioner David Beam, Gastonia councilman Walt Mallonee, or previous GOP candidate Patrick McHenry. Another real toss-up seat.

Slip one more county westward and you find two more seats in play in Cleveland, the 111th District of Democratic incumbent Andy Dedmon and the new 112th, which takes in part of Cleveland and all of Rutherford. Dedmon will face a spirited challenge from Republican attorney Tim Moore, but may well be conservative enough on some issues to stick it out.

In the 112th, Republicans may have missed an opportunity to pick up an open seat due to candidate recruitment. Reports are that David Rogers, a Republican attorney and former legislative candidate, will make a good try at the seat, but look for longtime school board chairman Bobby England to beat out businessman Kenny Hankinson for the Democratic nod and go into October with momentum.

Western NC

Five more seats to go in the far western mountains of North Carolina. In Burke County’s 86th District, Democrat Walter Church is perennially considered a vulnerable incumbent, and is perennially victorious. I think he faces a tougher race than usual this year, though, with Republican challenger Earl Cook running in a 50 percent Democratic district that nevertheless gave almost half its votes to Vinroot.

Republican Mark Crawford will defend a toss-up district in eastern Buncombe County, facing either Bruce Goforth or Michael Morgan. Of the WNC districts in play, this is the friendliest territory for the GOP.

In western Buncombe’s 114th District, Democratic Martin Nesbitt might seem to be unbeatable, but in fact he has lost before (in the 1994 GOP surge) and his district is not overwhelmingly Democratic. Republican challenger Bill Porter may struggle to put together the financial resources needed, however.

To the north and west of Nesbitt’s district, the 118th takes in Yancey, Madison, and part of Haywood counties. Incumbent Marge Carpenter will face a strong challenge from Democrat Ray Rapp, who is mayor of Mars Hill and a dean at Mars Hill College. The seat tilts a bit against Carpenter, so the state Republican Party will need to pitch in to keep this crucial seat.

And farther west, the 119th includes the rest of Haywood plus Jackson and Swain. Incumbent Democrat Phil Haire will probably brush aside a primary challenge and face Republican realtor Kaye Matthews in a moderately Democratic district.

Conclusion

So there are the 30 districts that matter most in the race for the N.C. House this year. Due to safe seats and the vagaries of candidate filings, the GOP already has a claim on 48 seats. That means they must win only 13 of the 30 seats in play to eke out a bare majority. Realistically, they may need 15 victories in order to elect a speaker. This is, as you can see, a 50/50 possibility. Can’t get any more unpredictable than that.