RALEIGH — You could see the glee. You could hear the relief. You could smell. . .
Well, you get the idea. During Tuesday night’s news broadcasts of the Wisconsin primary results, cable anchors and political commentators could scarcely contain their excitement about exit polls showing frontrunner John Kerry and media fave John Edwards locked in a surprisingly close race. Equally as welcome, I suspect, was the poor third-place showing that was developing for Howard Dean, whom the traditional media dislike both for reasons both professional (he’s no longer good copy) and institutional (his come-from-nowhere Internet behemoth made them more than a little nervous).
Eventually, Kerry won Wisconsin by six percentage points. The margin was small but not razor-thin. Still, Edwards got a third of the vote, far more than a third of the attention and buzz, and managed to get out the best line of the night — about objects being “closer than they appear” — in the few minutes he was allowed to speak on national TV before John Kerry boorishly shoved him aside for another one of the Massachusetts senator’s dull, plodding speeches.
Kerry doing a lazy Al Gore imitation? Not good. Simon Cowell might put it more colorfully — “abysmal with a capital A” was one of my favorites from a recent Idol — but surely even he had the good sense not to watch Kerry play the new American Idle.
In any event, this latest Edwards boomlet will continue for a while because it serves the interest of several parties. The news media, for one, were desperate to keep interest in a primary fight that seemed to wrap up quickly and, other than the Dean flame-out, generated little in the way of compelling coverage. Now the news channels, political mags, news wires, and web sites can supply additional days or weeks of speculation and babble.
Edwards, of course, gets to stay in the game and take on Kerry man-to-man (or man-to-man-to-flake-to-clown, which is essentially the same thing). There is a new Edwards scenario, believe it or not, though the probability of my triumphant directorial debut of the next Star Trek feature film remains slightly higher than its success.
The plan is for Edwards to capitalize on fawning coverage and his undeniable campaigning talent to earn enough free media to be competitive in several upcoming contests. There are three chances next Tuesday, caucuses in Idaho and Hawaii and a primary in Utah, but the Edwards team seems focused primarily on the next Tuesday, Super Tuesday, when 10 states will hold primaries or caucuses. His best chances to pick off states are probably Ohio and Georgia, with New York and Minnesota also potentially in play. In this scenario, Kerry would still win at least California, Maryland, and four New England states, but if Edwards could pull off some wins he could survive until the following week’s Southern contests in Florida, Texas, Lousiana, and Mississippi. He blew a similar opportunity with the Virginia and Tennessee primaries earlier this month, but that was with silly Wesley Clark in the race. A clearer shot ought to help him, as would any Kerry mistakes or revelations.
Meanwhile, some Democrats are coming around to the idea, with which I obviously agree, that a lengthier nomination fight is actually in their interest and that of Kerry himself. Democrats as a whole get additional time to make their case against George W. Bush without the president’s campaign being able effectively to respond, as it surely will as soon as a nominee is clearly indicated. And as long as Edwards doesn’t go personal against Kerry, he keeps the frontrunner in the headlines in key states and helps sharpen his image and message.
Judging by his underwhelming performance Tuesday night, Kerry could stand to get a lot less fuzzy in the coming weeks.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.