RALEIGH – Because there hasn’t been a GOP legislature in North Carolina since the 1800s, the new Republican majorities have no shortage of policy initiatives to pursue in the 2011 legislative session.
In the past, most bills introduced by Republicans were either voted down on the floor by Democratic majorities or blocked from consideration by Democratic leaders. Now, with Republican running the state house and senate, bills to, say, remove the statewide cap on charter schools, privatize some state services, reform the state’s annexation laws, and amend the state constitution to protect property rights will probably get to the floor and pass both chambers.
But for all the pent-up demand to exercise legislative power on behalf of conservative causes, most of the heavy lifting during the 2011 session will be devoted to two massive barbells: the budget deficit and redistricting.
The fiscal challenge facing North Carolina is daunting. At a minimum, projected state revenues will fall short of planned state spending by more than $3 billion. Depending on one’s definition – should it include only immediate operating expenses or obligations such as state pensions? – the deficit could be described as $5 billion or more.
While past Democratic governors and legislators were responsible for most of the reckless fiscal decisions that created the problem, Republicans won’t find much political value from playing the blame game. They wanted power in Raleigh. Now they have it.
Having (properly) ruled out tax increases as the solution to the problem, Republicans now have the responsibility to help Gov. Beverly Perdue enact a balanced 2011-13 budget. That means proposing or agreeing to billions of dollars in short-term budget savings, as well as structural reforms of the budget process and a long-term plan for reducing North Carolina’s tens of billions of dollars in accumulated debts and unfunded liabilities.
Make no mistake: you can’t balance North Carolina’s budget simply by eliminating redundancies, axing obvious pork-barrel projects, eliminating vacant positions, and economizing on travel budgets. These are praiseworthy first steps, but their total value is denominated in the hundreds of millions of dollars at most, not billions. The new Republican legislature will have to make some tough decisions about such items as Medicaid and other welfare programs, non-teaching expenses in the public schools and universities, big state subsidies for private firms and nonprofits, and the use of costly imprisonment for nonviolent crimes.
Most North Carolinians are grown-ups. They’ll understand the need to make tough decisions to bring state expenses in line with state revenues. Most North Carolinians have already had to do that for their own households and businesses.
While the budget deficit is the biggest problem facing the new legislature, the responsibility to redraw North Carolina’s congressional and legislative districts may consume almost as much political and media attention. The maps will define the political playing field for a decade. And they may well determine the fate of dozens of political careers, including those of many sitting lawmakers.
As I’ve previously discussed, I favor amending the North Carolina constitution to reform our redistricting process – both to create a redistricting commission and, more importantly, to apply additional neutral rules to the resulting maps. But we’re out of time.
The earliest general-election date for voters to consider such a constitutional amendment would be a year from now, and the 2011 ballot will feature only municipal and school-board races. Major changes to our constitution are best considered in high-turnout elections. Besides, even a November 2011 date would be too late to get maps approved by both a commission and the U.S. Justice Department before the start of candidate filing in early 2012.
Instead, GOP leaders should advance three pieces of legislation in 2011. First, they should enact new redistricting rules that telegraph their commitment to compactness and other neutral principles for drawing districts. Second, they should enact new maps according to those rules. And third, they should enact legislation authorizing a referendum to write such rules, and a commission system, into the state constitution.
If the Republican legislature can lift both the budget and redistricting barbells over their heads next year, the rest of the session ought to be no sweat.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.