RALEIGH – My “NC Spin” sparring partner Chris Fitzsimon and I have long done a seminar for the North Carolina Institute of Political Leadership* entitled “The Conservative Mind and the Liberal Mind.” No, our presentation doesn’t consist of a series of one-liners about the mindlessness of the opposing viewpoint. I think we do a good job of exposing IOPL Fellows – future candidates, campaign managers, and the like – to the idea that there are coherent philosophies that lie beneath the conservative/free-market and liberal/progressive political coalitions. And I use the plural “philosophies” to describe not just two opposing ones but actually several distinguishable philosophical traditions within each coalition.

I bring this up because I think the results from North Carolina’s 2007 election cycle show how so many voters are of two minds on government. Conservative and liberal activists have more-or-less consistent policy preferences derived from their philosophies. But many voters, even in odd-year elections with relatively low turnouts, bring a less ordered political psyche to the process. They have mixed, sometimes-contradictory views. Much of modern politics consists of the two main political parties battling over these voters by emphasizing some positions, downplaying others, and trying to set the terms of a given debate or campaign.

For example, consider the local tax referenda I wrote about yesterday. In 32 local votes on whether to raise sales or real-estate transfer taxes, voters said no 27 times. With some caveats, I would argue that you can summarize the conservative/free-market and liberal/progressive takes on the issue as follows.

The main liberal/progressive argument is that because of rapid population growth and other reasons, county governments in North Carolina face critical needs for infrastructure, public education, and other programs and need an alternative to the current mix of 1) property taxes, which county commissions fully control; 2) sales taxes, which can only be raised with legislative approval; and 3) fees and charges, which are currently permissible to fund some services (such as water and sewer) but not others (such as public schools).

The main conservative/free-market argument, which the John Locke Foundation and others advanced, was that county governments had sufficient revenue growth from the existing mix of sources to fund their highest spending priorities. New real-estate or sales taxes would fund the low-priority spending counties won’t cut, including corporate giveaways and grants to nonprofits, not core programs such as public schools. These taxes would also be more regressive and less transparent than current tax options.

A significant slice of the electorate in virtually each North Carolina community agrees with either the liberal/progressive argument or the conservative/free-market argument. These voters will consistently cast their ballots accordingly. But for the rest – which can range from 20 percent to 40 percent of the electorate, depending on how you run the numbers – there are elements of each argument that they find persuasive.

In fast-growing communities, for example, these voters recognize that it costs a lot of money up-front to build roads, schools, and other infrastructure. Many are willing to pay more tax, if necessary, to ensure that these highly valued services are adequately provided. On the other hand, many of the same voters believe that they are overtaxed in general, that governments don’t spend their current revenue stream wisely, and that public officials should be more creative in building and maintaining public infrastructure.

In the 2007 cycle, the latter argument proved to be more persuasive. My colleague Mitch Kokai crunched the numbers for the 28 counties in question:

• If you add up all the votes cast in the sales-tax and transfer-tax campaigns, counting only the closest votes in the five counties where both options were on the ballot, the statewide vote was 66 percent against new taxes, 33 percent in favor. By usual electoral standards, that qualifies as a blowout.

• If you add in the Mecklenburg referendum to retain an existing sales tax for transit, counting it as a pro-tax result, the statewide anti-tax vote remains a solid but less-overwhelming 56 percent.

These results show that large majorities of voters who turned out in the 2007 municipal elections were persuaded by the conservative argument. That may well happen in future elections, too, but nothing is guaranteed. Fiscal conservatives will still have to work the issue hard.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.

*By the way: The N.C. Institute of Political Leadership is back in business and taking applications for its Spring 2008 class. If you or someone you know may be interested in seeking elective office in North Carolina, this could be the program for you. Click here for more information and on-line application form.