RALEIGH – As one of the nation’s chief political battlegrounds for decades, North Carolina has never lacked for breaking news or interesting trends. At the present moment, with so much going on, it may be helpful to consider North Carolina’s political future by asking three big questions:

• Can North Carolina compete?
• Will former Gov. Mike Easley be indicted?
• Will Republicans take over the state legislature?

These are not unrelated questions. The first is, in many ways, the toughest one to answer – and, no, it’s not some oblique reference to the prowess of the Tar Heel basketball team.

Steeped in the state’s Blarney Tradition, in which North Carolina is always said to be a leader or innovator, our state’s political class has yet to grasp the reality that North Carolina is in the bottom half of the United States on key measures of fiscal, economic, and social health.

In December, the state’s unemployment rate was 11.2 percent, one of the worst in the nation. In some counties, the rate was closer to 15 percent. Not only is North Carolina having a worse recession than the average state, but it also had a worse-than-average recession a decade ago, and a weaker-than-average recovery from the previous recession. In short, North Carolina is no longer an economic leader. It’s a laggard.

Some of the state’s challenges are far beyond the control of government – if any politician tells you he can effectively block international trends or technological innovations that render existing businesses uncompetitive, he is telling you a fib. But the truth is that North Carolina hasn’t made it sufficiently attractive for investors and entrepreneurs to create new businesses to replace declining industries.

Our cost structure is uncompetitive. While our relative lack of unionization is attractive, our costs are higher in other areas, such as taxes, energy, and regulation. Our marginal income tax rates are among the highest in the country. Big firms can escape them by negotiating big incentive packages for occasional relocations, but start-up firms cannot.

The quality and quantity of our infrastructure have improved somewhat in recent years, but remain inadequate. Our human capital, produced both by formal education and informal job training, is also inadequate. For all the money poured into higher education, and all the expensive fads embraced at the K-12 level, North Carolinians are not better educated than their peers. All the self-serving spin in the world won’t change these realities.

If candidates for federal, state, and local office aren’t talking bluntly and frequently about these fundamental issues of competitiveness during the 2010 election cycle, North Carolina voters should ignore them and find better leaders.

There is no clearer illustration of the state’s leadership deficit than to consider the career of former Gov. Mike Easley. While North Carolina was falling behind, Easley was flying around or hiding out. If he had devoted as much attention to crafting innovative policies and mastering the administration of state government as he devoted to his personal recreation and finances, perhaps things would be a little better.

As it is, Easley is currently the target of a wide-ranging federal corruption probe. Most recently, one of his closest political aides, Ruffin Poole, was indicted. To answer the second question, it is virtually guaranteed that Easley will himself be indicted. The results, both political and cultural, would be difficult to exaggerate.

Still, to get to the third question, if North Carolina Republicans think they need only ride an anti-Easley, anti-corruption bandwagon into legislative power in Raleigh, they are mistaken. While some voters will have scandal on their minds in November, most will be thinking about the first question – about whether North Carolina can recover its competitiveness and create economic opportunity for current and future generations.

If GOP candidates can articulate a coherent, persuasive message of reform and growth to those voters, they can prevail. The math isn’t impossible. Republicans need to win 9 of about 20 competitive seats with Democratic incumbents to take the NC House. They must win 6 Democratic seats in the NC Senate, a feasible scenario thanks to retirements and other recent political developments.

These are three big questions in North Carolina politics. I guess we’ll start getting answers soon.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation