RALEIGH — It’s been kind of hard to sustain a politically influential movement to bring economic activity more under the control of the “public” during the past couple of years. The Smart Growth critique that was old the rage in local government circles in the mid- to late-1990s has faded into the background a bit since 2001.
Smart Growthers didn’t go anywhere, of course, and many continued to run for or hold public office. Moreover, governmental efforts continued in Washington, Raleigh, and various cities to build North Carolina’s first rail-transit systems in a century (reaching back into history for an oudated technology ought to tell folks something, but it won’t).
Still, there’s been a noticeable lack of agitation in most parts for new controls on development, for new regulations on housing, for new taxing authority to give localities an alternative to the very visible — hence preferable — property tax. Sure, a bill or two has floated through the General Assembly but none has alighted. Durham imposed a new impact fee but never got legislative authority, so the fight will move to court.
This interruption in the Smart Growth program was not, unfortunately, evidence that its practitioners had finally decided to let North Carolinians live and work as they choose. Rather, it was the consequence of economic recession.
While North Carolina’s rural counties have accounted for a disproportionate share of the losses in jobs and economic momentum since 2001, the urban centers where the Smart Growth debate had been raging were hardly spared. Jobless rates headed upward in Charlotte and the Triangle and soared in the Triad. Thousands of workers who thought they might be spared a painful restructuring, those in computer and telecommunications industries, discovered otherwise. As the job market grew less attractive, so did Smart Growth policies — because residential and commercial development are a product of a community’s job prospects. If you want to slow down growth, slowing down or ending job creation is probably your best bet. And that’s what happened.
But this was only a pause. The national economy is clearly in an increasingly strong recovery, fueled by the federal tax cuts, the Federal Reserve Board’s monetary policies, continued technological innovation, a net reduction in global trade barriers, growing public confidence about the war on terrorism, and other factors. While North Carolina has uncharacteristically been lagging behind the national economy in the early stages of the recovery — our performance on standard economic measures is still among the worst in the region, though South Carolina has been challenging our position in the back of the pack since the beginning of 2003.
As the economy recovers, businesses will begin to hire again. That will increase demand for new and existing housing, both from the local unemployed recovering their buying power and from resurgent immigration from elsewhere. The flow of North Carolinians from rural counties to the cities will likely surge, as old-line industries decline beyond the recovery point and their workers see few alternatives but to move to the bustling cities. This is a process, by the way, that’s been going on for decades and is probably inevitable.
All of this will restart the growth-control debate once more. The Smart Growthers will again advocate their odd mix of 1) complaints about affordable housing and mobility and 2) public policies designed to reduce affordable housing and worsen mobility, such as taxes, regulations, and transit. Critics of Smart Growth will respond.
From the “gratuitous self-serving department,” I’d like to recommend that those interested in these critical issues attend the Center for Local Innovation’s annual conference on city and county issues, to be held this year on January 10 in the Research Triangle Park. The theme of the daylong “Innovate 2004” conference is “Preserving the American Dream,” and is devoted to a rigorous analysis of the Smart Growth philosophy and policy mix. A stellar array of speakers will be there, as well elected and appointed officials from North Carolina counties, municipalities, and state government. The event will also feature some other CLI announcements and surprises, including the release of its annual ranking of city and county tax burdens in North Carolina.
The Smart Growth debate is coming back. Now is the time to study up on it.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.