As Virginians head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 2 to elect a governor, the race is under the watchful eye of the nation, particularly those political pundits and strategists looking toward 2022.

The race has not only tightened as it got closer, as Republican Glen Youngkin has pulled ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe by about two points, depending on the poll. That is unusual for the normally Blue Old Dominion State; its heavily-populated northern Virginia — a Washington, D.C., suburb — trend left while its southern areas trend right. Depending on the outcome of the race, Democrats will spin the results to minimize damage for 2022.

You read it here first. These are the talking points you will hear over the next few days after the Virginia race:

If McAuliffe loses, Democrats will say: 

McAuliffe was a flawed candidate, and he committed political suicide when he said parents should not have a say in students’ curriculum.

This race turned on local issues and is not a reflection of broader issues with Democrats and President Biden.

Democrats must pass the largest version of the $3.5-trillion dollar spending bill to keep liberals engaged.

This loss is squarely on U.S. Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, as well as McAuliffe.

White anger and racism fueled by Donald Trump and white school parents drove this election. It shows the power white supremacy still holds over Republicans and the body politic.

If McAuliffe wins, the Democrats will say: 

Liberals carried the day, pulling McAuliffe across the line. This shows the need to pass the largest version of the spending bill to keep liberals engaged.

Democrats pulled it off because they are excited by the prospect of passing massive spending bills.

The white supremacist element fueled by former President Trump is still in control of GOP politics and is still dangerous to both the GOP itself and the larger body politic.

Regardless of the outcome in the Virginia governor’s race, here is the reality:

In a state Biden won by 10 points, this race should never be close. But voters are fleeing Democrats because the president campaigned on a return to normalcy, civility, and competence. He has delivered none of it.

McAuliffe’s “gaffe” on parents was telling the truth about what he and Democrats think about parents becoming involved in education, something they believe should only be in the hands of Democrats and unions.

In the end, Youngkin is a good candidate. His campaign and message are models for GOP candidates going forward on how to engage the base, many of whom are still loyal to Trump, while running a forward-looking campaign about the issues and the future. Democrats continue to oppose reasonable school choice measures at their own peril.