Jim Black said he do almost anything to avoid it, lobbyists and press warned against it, and virtually no one expected it as late as two weeks ago, but now we have co-speakers in the North Carolina House. While attention has naturally focused on the personalities involved – Black and Richard Morgan, head of a (suddenly larger) group of dissident Republicans – it is arguably more important to keep your eye on the birdie, or maybe the bogey, that is going to be the next set of moves on organizing the House for the 2003 session.

Here are some decisions to look out for:

The Rules Committee. Black had tried to ensure Democratic control of this key procedural panel in his previous attempts at power-sharing with a sole speaker. Presumably, with the Black-Morgan stereo speakers, the leadership of this committee (which Morgan used to chair during the mid-1990s Republican ascendancy) will be split. Look to see if the picks are comparable in stature.

Committee of the Whole. Reportedly one of the elements of the new regime will be that certain issues might be taken on by the entire House, meeting in a “Committee of the Whole,” rather than in regular committees. If the state budget is one of these items – and the budget process starts in the House this year – it will likely be a victory for both open government and those betting on a very long session.

Factions and Fractions. The seemingly large vote for the Black-Morgan regime masked continued divisions on both sides of the aisle. Black went for the deal he had previously spurned apparently because he sensed the imminent departure of a good chunk of Democrats to the faction of Rep. Martin Nesbitt, who was negotiating his own co-speakership deal with the Republicans. The split didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean it won’t in the coming weeks and months on policy issues.

Over in the GOP, there are at least three factions. The Republican Orthodox, led by speaker nominee George Holmes and caucus leader Joe Kiser, didn’t go along with the final deal. This group contains both the party establishment and the most conservative members (not the same individuals, by the way). They constitute a bare majority of the current GOP members, but are likely representative of most Republican leaders and activists back home. On the other end of the spectrum, the Republican Rump, led by Morgan, includes the three moderate members most likely to vote with Democrats on policy issues, plus the more conservative Morgan and Julia Howard, a former whip. Finally, a motley crew of unsure freshmen and unpredictable veterans – whom I’ll label the Republican Rebels – abandoned the Orthodox faction Wednesday and joined the winning side.

Some did it to, well, join the winning side. Others seemed uncomfortable with the emerging idea of a Holmes-Nesbitt co-speakership, remembering that Nesbitt has in the past been a fairly partisan and liberal Democrat. And I get the sense that some of the freshmen jump ship just to get the whole mess over with. Sorry, guys and gals, but your fun has only just begun.

Biggest surprise of the day? Alamance County’s Cary Allred turned out to be Orthodox. Didn’t see that coming.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.