RALEIGH – It’s Election Day in North Carolina and in jurisdictions across the country. In most cases, the politics is strictly local, though it may be revealing of some larger trends. In New Jersey and Virginia, of course, it’s more than that – and potentially even more revealing.

The off-year election after the presidential one always attracts disproportionate attention from politicos and the news media. Why? Because they have little else to do. Overanalyzing local elections is far more interesting than speculating about elections one to three years hence. And the fact is that New Jersey and Virginia have, in the past, provided tantalizing insights about the political future.

In 1993, Republican wins for governor in both states signaled that the GOP coalition was becoming energized in their opposition to the Clinton administration and its foreign and domestic policies. Here in North Carolina, something similar happened with the election of Tom Fetzer to be the first Republican mayor of Raleigh. The result didn’t guarantee GOP gains in Congress and legislature the following years. But it was suggestive of the possibility.

In 2001, it was the Democrats’ turn to look for positive indicators in the off-year elections. They found them, most significantly in Mark Warner’s election to the governorship of Virginia. Warner, now a U.S. senator, ran as a centrist Democrat in a center-right state. The candidates who emulated him did okay in the 2002 congressional elections. Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, quite a few of their candidates ran Left – which is where Democratic activists wanted to go, but not so many voters – and Republicans had a surprisingly good 2002 cycle.

This week, the political attention is again on these two gubernatorial races. One, in Virginia, appears to be in the bag for the GOP. The other, a three-way contest in New Jersey, appears to be too close to call. If the Republicans win both, plus the closely watched House 23 race in New York, the party will call it a hat trick. If the Democrat wins New Jersey, defenders of the Obama administration will argue that the off-year elections provided no clear indication of things to come.

Here in North Carolina, there are particularly spirited races underway in three cities: Charlotte, Chapel Hill, and Wilmington. The first two appear to be very competitive. It’s harder to tell in Wilmington, where the campaign took a bruising turn a few days ago but no public polling appears to be available. Political junkies will be watching some other races around the state, too, including a school-board runoff in Wake County that promises to ratify a conservative takeover and another sales-tax referendum in Lee County.

I happen to be in Asheville this week, attending the annual meeting of the State Policy Network, essentially a trade association for state-based think tanks. There’s some interest in the gubernatorial races, admittedly, but most of the discussion concerns proposed health care and environmental legislation, not electoral politics. Outside the convention, around town, the political attention is on three seats up for grabs on the Asheville City Council.

In between my Tuesday commitments at the meeting, these are the races I’ll be checking on. As a political junkie, I can’t help it – but I do promise not to overanalyze the results.

Much.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation