We normally don’t think parties win primaries. These contests, conceived by Progressives in the early 20th century as a way to weaken the grip Democrats and Republicans had on politics and government, turn partisans against one another in a very public airing of their own and their organizations’ foibles. But on May 4 there was a clear winner in North Carolina. It was the GOP.
For starters, the Democratic U.S. Senate primary clearly helped the Republicans and their candidate, Sen. Richard Burr. With no one able to secure 40 percent of the vote, the Democrats face a June 22 runoff between Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham.
This has dragged out the uncertainty for another six weeks and will consume considerable amounts of both candidates’ already paltry campaign reserves. As of mid-April, Cunningham’s cash on-hand was the equivalent of about 7 percent of Burr’s nearly $5 million. Marshall had about half as much cash as Cunningham.
Moreover, the winner will have to stand even further down the line of Democratic Senate candidates asking for handouts from the national party and the big Washington fundraisers. Among those sure to be at the front of the queue are Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Sens. Barbara Boxer of California and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, and the party’s nominees in Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota.
It is true that Marshall is running nearly even in the polls with Burr. Cunningham is not far behind. Marshall’s performance exceeds that of Kay Hagan at this time in 2008, and Hagan went on to beat sitting Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole. But immediately after the runoff, Burr finally can fix his sights on the Democrat and put into motion his well-resourced campaign. The Democratic nominee is likely to be exhausted.
The turnout in the Senate primary should concern Democrats. In 2008, their Senate nomination contest attracted about 1.3 million North Carolinians. Admittedly, many voted because they were interested in the competitive presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But even in 2002, when Erskine Bowles won his first U.S. Senate nomination and there was no such pull to the polls, 640,000 people voted in the Democratic primary. This year only 425,000 showed up.
This indicates a clear lack of enthusiasm among Democrats. In a year in which they had a closely watched and fervently disputed U.S. Senate primary, the turnout constituted about 15.7 percent of all registered Democratic voters.
This contrasts miserably with Republicans, who essentially gathered to anoint Burr. Turnout in the GOP Senate primary this year was the equivalent of about 19.4 percent of the state’s 1.9 million registered Republicans.
The fact that many more Republican primaries were contested furnishes another indicator of heightened energy in the GOP and increasing despondency among Democrats. Thirty-one Republicans filed in the eight U.S. House seats currently held by Democrats in the state. Three of the Democrats’ four U.S. House primaries were in seats they held.
To be sure, Republican Reps. Howard Coble, Virginia Foxx, Walter Jones, and Patrick McHenry faced challengers, too. But Democratic Reps. Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler were forced to fend off concerted challenges from their left as they faced the ire of liberals — largely as a result of their votes against President Obama’s health care legislation.
The pattern was repeated in state legislative primaries. Of the 20 Senate seats held by Republicans, only two saw Democratic primaries. Of the 30 Democratic districts, however, half saw Republican primaries. In all, 46 Republicans and only 17 Democrats ran in state Senate primaries. Sixty-two Republicans entered contests for state House seats, compared to 46 Democrats.
Many Democrats feel the economic recovery, such as it is, will help right the ship before November. There may be some truth to that.
Still, at least one critical part of the 2010 election is over: candidate recruitment. With the exception of the very few runoffs, neither party can change the personnel they will go into battle with this fall.
Republicans feel they have a tested and highly qualified group capable of winning a sizable number of Democrat-held seats — perhaps even picking up a chamber in the General Assembly. What’s more, Republican voters seem more energized than Democrats and more motivated to vote in November. Based upon what happened May 4, it’s easy to believe Republican ebullience is warranted.
Andy Taylor is Professor and Chair of Political Science in the School of Public and International Affairs at N.C. State University.