RALEIGH – I tried desperately to avoid it. I fought mightily against it. Seeing the yawning precipice ahead of me, I tried to stop short. Recognizing the temptation, I steeled myself against it.

I failed. Today starts a new series here on Carolina Journal Online: Covering the 2008 Elections. Can’t help it. The presidential race is fully underway. The nominations will probably be obvious by this time next year.

Although to some readers this observation will be only a chuckle-inducer, during the 2004 cycle I was accused by more than a few commentators and correspondents of being in the tank for John Edwards, home-state phenom and then-moderate alternative to John Kerry for the Democratic nomination. Look, I just called things as I saw them. I thought (correctly, as it turned out) that the national media and both Democratic and Republican political pros were underestimating Edwards’ talents and strategy. Early on, I predicted that Edwards would be on the ticket.

This year, I’m not prepared to make such a prediction. True, there is widespread concern among Democrats about the prospect of a Hillary Clinton nomination. Some believe her to be too polarizing and left-wing for the general electorate. Others believe her to be a sellout, insufficiently anti-war to satisfy primary voters, and too associated with the past of Clintonian triangulation and scandal to carry the banner for a party selling a different and hopeful future. (Here’s a case where “both-and” thinking is more informative than “either-or.”)

But Edwards will not automatically inherit the anyone-but-Hillary mantle. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will give him a big run for his money – or, more precisely, a big run on the campaign funds that Edwards needs to compete with the well-funded Clinton effort in organization and media. Furthermore, while Edwards allies appeared to adjust the Democratic primary schedule months ago to increase his chances of taking Clinton out early, the latest trend appears to be for big states to move their primaries into early February, thus minimizing the importance of winning Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina and helping the frontrunner immensely.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, I see a clear shift in momentum from John McCain to Rudy Giuliani among GOP activists and donors who aren’t too particular about exemplifying the Republican platform. While non-candidate Newt Gingrich and just-announced candidate Mitt Romney are popular among movement conservatives, the former is completely unelectable and the latter still lacks basic name-recognition outside of New England. McCain and Giuliani have neither deficiency, but they have problems on some issues. For most active Republicans, McCain is questionable on taxes, federal regulation, free speech, and respect for the conservative base but attractive on pork-barrel spending and foreign policy. Giuliani is questionable on abortion, gay rights, and gun control (to some extent) but attractive on taxes, regulation, and other domestic policies. On the critical issue of Iraq, McCain and Giuliani take similar positions but remain distinguishable. At first, McCain was the more credible and powerful spokesman. But now, I sense that GOP voters may want more distance between their 2008 presidential nominee and the Bush administration’s policies. The irony is that McCain has been far more critical of Bush than Giuliani has, but as a prominent U.S. senator he is still more associated with the current policy in the public mind that is the former New York mayor.

The next few months will offer answers to some tantalizing questions. Will both Obama and Edwards stay in, splitting the opposition to the frontrunner and paving the way for a Clintonian restoration? Will inevitable mistakes by the freshman Obama or the sophomore Edwards (in his case already evident) arrest their momentum? Will continued chaos in Iraq accentuate McCain’s slide and Giuliani’s rise? Will Romney convince social conservatives of his bona fides and emerge as an effective primary challenger from the Right? Will Dennis Kucinich and Tom Tancredo finally get their due?

Yeah, just kidding on the last one. No, they won’t get their due. They’ll get attention.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.