Years of robust growth in education spending will come to an end this spring as the General Assembly grapples with a projected $2 billion revenue shortfall.
With little or no new money to spend, teachers, administrators, and special-interest groups are being forced to rethink their priorities. There will be hard fighting over scarce resources, and by the time it’s over, some sacred cows might find themselves in the slaughterhouse.
Gov. Beverly Perdue has already ordered education agencies to trim expenditures in the current fiscal year by 2 percent, a smaller hit than that ordered for other agencies. As of late January, her budget proposal for the coming fiscal year was still being drafted, and House and Senate legislative leaders would not speculate on whether total spending on education would hold steady in 2009-10, go up slightly, or actually decline.
Requests from special-interest groups
That hasn’t stopped lawmakers and lobbyists from crafting their own spending proposals. The State Board of Education submitted its wish list for new spending in December, but State Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson acknowledges there’s little hope the board will get much of what it wants.
Her top priority for the upcoming session is a modest $4.7 million proposal for overhauling the state’s accountability program. In an interview in January she called the current program “confusing to parents and teachers” and outlined a more user-friendly system that would give parents feedback on their children’s progress based on grade levels, rather than the four achievement levels currently in use.
Interest groups are also readying their agendas. The N.C. Association of Educators, the state’s largest teachers union, will continue to lobby for a pay increase despite the revenue shortfall. House Education Appropriations Committee Chairman Doug Yongue, D-Scotland, said that he, like many members, is committed to raising teacher pay to the national average, but calls the outlook for progress this year “very bleak.”
“There are so many things we want to do,” he said, but with so many competing priorities “it’s hard to say which ones will ultimately win out.”
Complicating the picture for teachers, the state employees health plan was $300 million in debt at the end of December. The plan is on pace to finish the fiscal year more than $700 million in the red. Legislators will have to address that shortfall immediately upon returning to work.
After years of increases in pay, teachers might wind up with less in their pockets after accounting for possible increases in premiums, copays, or prescription drugs, all of which have been suggested as cures for the health plan’s woes. The NCAE has vowed to fight any increases in premiums or reductions in services.
The N.C. School Boards Association has a couple of agenda items on the table as well. The association for several years has been sounding out legislators about the possibility of granting independent taxing authority to local school boards, instead of having the school boards request funding from their county commissioners.
In addition, the association would like to see school boards exempted from paying state sales tax, or at least being allowed to apply for a refund, as most other local governmental agencies are now able to do.
At the meeting of the Joint Legislative Education Oversight Committee on Jan. 14, lawmakers approved a modest agenda of items with little new spending. One new item that is sure to get some attention this year is a request for $20 million to help school cafeterias meet tougher new nutrition standards. School cafeterias receive some state funding, but they must sell popular, high-calorie foods such as pizza and french fries to generate enough income to stay in business. The new standards will require them to shift to a healthier, but less- profitable menu.
Some programs might be cut
Some established programs might be on the chopping block. With Mike Easley no longer in office, some of his signature education programs, especially More at Four and literacy coaches, could be targeted for cuts. Some legislators have already suggested combining More at Four with Smart Start to save money, and Easley’s planned expansion of literacy coaches from 200 to 300 might be put on hold. As of mid-January, key legislators were waiting to see how hard Perdue plans to push for the programs before commenting on their fate.
Lack of money will not stop some lawmakers from trying to leave their mark on education policy in other ways. Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, again will rally support for his controversial bill on school bullying. The bill, which lists categories of children that would be specifically protected from bullying or harassing behavior, engendered a spirited debate in the last two sessions of the Assembly.
Proponents of raising the compulsory attendance age to 18 have also vowed to press forward.
Charter school proponents probably will file bills to raise or remove the cap on the number of charter schools in the state, and those bills likely will be ignored by the Democratic majority.
A few policy bills actually might make it into law. One, which allows retired teachers to return to work without a loss of retirement pay, most likely will be extended another two years.
If the states are successful in wrangling construction money out of the federal government’s proposed fiscal stimulus package, there is a good chance that some of the funds could go to school construction. Commenting on the impact that the stimulus bill could have in North Carolina, Yongue said, “Governor Perdue and President Obama have so many things they want to do, but the difference is Obama can print money.”
Predicting what the Assembly might do in a given session is always risky — the fiscal situation could change, new problems demanding immediate attention could arise, and scandals could empower some and dethrone others.
“Anything I say now is subject to change due to fiscal or political developments,” Yongue said.
Jim Stegall is a contributor to Carolina Journal.