As they seek re-election, North Carolina’s centrist Democrats are quick to claim their independence from the party’s liberal Washington leadership. And yet the state’s three self-styled moderates — Mike McIntyre, D-7th; Larry Kissell, D-8th; and Heath Shuler, D-11th — refuse to say how they plan to cast what may be the most consequential vote of the 112th Congress: the vote for speaker of the House.

Carolina Journal contacted the offices of Shuler, the whip of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, fellow Blue Dog McIntyre, and Kissell, and asked whether they planned to vote to re-elect Speaker Nancy Pelosi if Democrats retained control of the House in November and she was renominated. Phone calls and e-mails were not returned.

All three voted against their party’s signature health care reforms; McIntyre and Kissell voted against the cap-and-trade legislation targeting greenhouse gases; and Kissell has voted against raising the nation’s debt limit.

And yet, these moderates all have supported Pelosi as speaker in the past. So have the other Blue Dog leaders — Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-S.D.; Baron Hill, D-Ind.; and Jim Matheson, D-Utah.

The Tar Heel centrists would not say whether Pelosi would get their votes again, or who else might be a better candidate to control the House’s legislative agenda and be third in line for the presidency. The speaker also can determine committee assignments, pick committee leaders, and decide which bills reach the House floor for votes.

Political analysts say that voting for Pelosi is just one piece of the puzzle, though, and that candidates’ success in the election will ride on how the other parts are pieced together.

“Pelosi’s name carries a lot of symbolic value,” said David McLennan, a political science professor at Peace College in Raleigh. It’s symbolic value that many people don’t want to be associated with, he said, but the ties necessarily won’t doom the political fortunes of lawmakers who vote for her.

The most recent Rasmussen Reports polling, from May, shows Pelosi with a 35-percent approval rating. The San Francisco Democrat scored higher than the approval ratings for House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio (23 percent), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada (22 percent), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (30 percent).

Even so, N.C. State University political science professor Steve Greene said that running as a Democrat carries with it one non-negotiable vote: House speaker.

“If you run as a Democrat, you vote for a Democrat. If you vote for a Republican, you are one,” Greene said.

Voters will rely less on candidates’ position on Pelosi than on how they promote their independence from the party’s agenda, McLennan and Green said. The question is whether constituents will be convinced of their autonomy.

As a freshman, Kissell’s campaign will be the most interesting to watch. It is more difficult to defeat incumbents after they have been re-elected.

Amanda Vuke is an editorial intern for Carolina Journal.