Wake and Orange country officials haven’t decided whether they’ll follow Durham’s lead and place a half-cent transportation tax before voters this fall. Durham passed new taxes last year. But concerns over the expense of fixed-rail transit and a lack of appetite for increasing taxes in a lethargic economy could influence that decision.
“I don’t think there is a move to make a commitment any time soon” by Wake County commissioners on placing the tax referendum on this November’s presidential election ballot, said County Manager David Cooke.
The tax would generate $56 million to $60 million annually to fund the $5.5 billion 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan sought by the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization and the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization. “I’ve never had people come up to me and tell me they want more taxes,” Cooke said. That aversion might be heightened in a year when taxation levels and their impact on economic growth are a central focus of presidential year politics, he said.
Critics of the proposal also say that the system would generate only a small proportion of its funding through ridership, requiring continuing taxpayer support to keep the trains running. They also say that the Triangle’s residential and commercial activity is dispersed throughout the region, making the are not conducive to heavy ridership on a fixed-rail system.
It was surprising that Durham County passed the half-cent transportation sales tax in last November’s election while simultaneously passing a quarter-cent education tax, he said. Durham’s transit tax could generate up to $17.3 million a year.
The Durham portion of the tri-county transit plan is for more buses, a narrow-gauge, light-rail line running from downtown to UNC Hospitals in Chapel Hill and a wide-track commuter line connecting downtown to Research Triangle Park and eastern Wake County.
In Wake County, light rail is proposed to run from downtown Cary to West Raleigh, N.C. State University, downtown Raleigh, and Millbrook Road. Bus service would be expanded and extended to cities that don’t currently have it, and a commuter rail line would run on existing tracks, with some new track installed.
Even though Durham passed its tax measure, Wake County officials think the outcome could be different in their county, where polls have found public support for rail more evenly split, Cooke said.
Moreover, a transportation tax request would take place amid a backdrop of other funding pressures.
“The [Wake County] school system, I’m sure, will want more capital money,” Cooke said, and Wake Technical Community College has a goal of continued growth.
“I think we need to have that conversation all at the same time. These things are competing against one another,” and whether transportation or education costs should be the top priority “is a valid policy question,” Cooke said.
In the meantime, county officials are meeting through April with leaders of all 12 municipalities to discuss the Wake County portion of the transit plan. Meetings already have been held with officials in Garner and Cary.
“We do a lot of joint projects, but there are differences of opinion on transit,” Cooke said. The meetings with municipalities were scheduled because “we want more feedback and scrutiny.”
“I think we’re probably parallel with them to some extent,” Orange County Manager Frank Clifton said of the deliberation on the bus-to-rail-to-bus service for moving people around.
“I’m not sure at this time whether they’ll do that,” he said of county commissioners placing the half-cent sales tax before the voters this November. The tax would raise about $5 million annually.
“Our board members are asking questions and trying to get more information and rationale” on the various components of the plan, Clifton said.
“The light rail, I think, is the most unsettled issue at this time,” Clifton said. It is “a fairly small percentage of the project but a substantial portion of the cost.”
Debate has sharpened on alignments and costs.
“There’s some uncertainty about who pays for what” on the N.C. Hwy. 54 link between Durham and Chapel Hill, Clifton said.
And residents of Chapel Hill’s Meadowmont neighborhood, an upscale subdivision originally built with a corridor to accommodate light rail, now increasingly oppose the concept. Environmental concerns about infringing on wetlands in the area have prompted opponents to call for the route to be redirected farther south along N.C. Hwy. 54.
There is, however, a growing consensus to expand bus service throughout the county, Clifton said. More routes and more frequent trips between Hillsborough and Chapel Hill are being discussed, as is a route along the busy U.S. 70 corridor from Mebane to Durham.
County officials are in the process of meeting with representatives of the county’s towns to discuss the transit plan, Clifton said. At the conclusion of those sessions there will be a joint meeting among full town boards and the county commissioners. The commissioners would make no decision prior to that as-yet unscheduled meeting, Clifton said.
Triangle Transit officials cannot move the project forward unless Wake and Orange counties pass tax measures.
“The question is how fast the elected leaders of the region will move,” said David King, CEO of Triangle Transit.
“There is some thought that this fall would be a good time because people would be coming to the polls in a good turnout” for the presidential election, King said. That would enable “the fullest participation of the vote so it couldn’t be said it wasn’t a good outcome.”
Orange County’s Board of Commissioners was criticized by many residents of northern Orange County and the John Locke Foundation (publishers of Carolina Journal), among others, for conducting a countywide, quarter-cent sales tax referendum on last November’s ballot for education and economic development.
Local residents opposing the measure noted that the projects funded by the tax would benefit southern Orange County disproportionately. In the Hillsborough area, where voters are less inclined to favor higher taxes, turnout may have been muted.
King said if the referenda were approved this fall, it would be four to six years before planning for the commuter rail section was completed.
“It would be about 2019 before that commuter rail service would be operating,” he said. Projections are that light rail could be running in Wake County by 2022-23 if a vote were taken this year, and in 2025 for the Orange-Durham light rail.
King said the light-rail projects are built around a financing formula of 50 percent from the federal government, 25 percent from the state, and 25 percent local.
“The federal funds for these rail projects … are competitive and discretionary,” he said, and the Federal Transit Administration looks for a local funding commitment before allocating federal money. In the absence of a local share of money being guaranteed through the sales tax referendums, he said, “we would not expect the government to be interested in making a commitment to federal discretionary funds until we have our house in order.”
Despite transit planners’ enthusiasm for the project, the plan has its critics. They include Durham resident Robert Olason, former transit planner for the City of Raleigh and ex-trustee with the Durham Area Transit Authority who has served as a fellow in the National Transit Institute.
“All the experts say it’s going to be a terrible white elephant,” Olason said.
“The whole issue of suburban light rail as a transportation solution is questionable,” Olason said. “The best statistic that shows how questionable they are is the one specific to the TTA [Triangle Transit] system, which is, at buildout, its engineers project that the result of spending $5.5 billion on the project will be an actual increase in daily vehicle trips. In other words more drivers driving more cars if we build it than if we don’t.”
The main reason the light rail system is not going to work is because of suburban Triangle sprawl, which is conducive to driving, he said. Transit ridership works best in cities with dense populations and residential high-rise buildings, according to Olason.
“We really need to provide bus service for the transportation disadvantaged” who currently don’t have ready access to buses, Olason said, rather than trying to convince drivers to ride trains.
Dan Way is a contributor to Carolina Journal.