After wandering in the political wilderness for more than a century, could the North Carolina Republican Party’s retaking of the General Assembly Nov. 2 herald a long-term return to power?

The verdict from political experts: it’s hard to say. The answer hinges on how Republicans perform in office, how the economy fares, and how deftly Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue handles the new GOP majorities — not to mention a federal criminal investigation into her 2008 campaign.

“Although it appears that Republicans should be in a strong position to capitalize on their successes at this point, that could change over the next two years depending on how they handle having power in Raleigh,” said Hunter Bacot, a political science professor and pollster at Elon University.

The unpredictable Tar Heel voter is another mitigating factor. Although Republicans gained 27 seats in the state House and Senate combined in the midterm, North Carolina’s three centrist Democratic congressmen, who ran in opposition to much of President Barack Obama’s agenda, easily won re-election, even after pundits pegged them as vulnerable to Republican challengers.

History isn’t on the GOP’s side, either. After winning a majority in the state House in 1994, Republicans maintained control for only four years. The party hasn’t had full control of both chambers at the same time since Reconstruction.

Another problem, particularly if the economic slump continues, is that voters will see Republicans as insiders two years from now.

“Republicans are now going to be part of the status quo, and it’s going to be interesting how the public sees that,” said N.C. State University political science professor Andy Taylor.

“If the public remains in an ornery mood, and things don’t perceivably turn around in the next couple years,” he said, “then just as President Obama and Gov. Perdue are now seen as the villains, whereas they were the saviors in 2008, my sense is that [it] will happen to the Republican majorities in the General Assembly.”

Perdue trouble

Unless Perdue faces a successful primary challenge from within the party, she’ll top the ballot two years form now, along with President Barack Obama.

What could that mean for her fellow Democrats? Much of the answer depends on her popularity with voters, and how she weathers a federal probe into her campaign finance activities during her 2008 bid for governor.

An Elon University poll in October put Perdue’s approval rating at 39 percent. The same month, the left-leaning Public Policy Polling gave her an approval of only 35 percent. Taking her first two years in office as a whole, Perdue has emerged as the most unpopular first-term governor in modern times.

In another survey (PDF download) released Monday, the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling firm found Perdue trailing two potential 2012 GOP rivals — outgoing state Republican Party Chairman Tom Fetzer of Raleigh (42-40) and her 2008 opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (49-37). Perdue also received negative feedback in this poll, with only 33 percent of voters approving of her performance and 49 percent disapproving.

“She’s in a position where she might want to sit back and either let the Republicans lead, and hope they overreach and sentiment starts to move back to her side, or she has an active approach, and it’s one that’s bipartisan,” Taylor said.

2012 scene

In addition to governor, all Council of State offices will be up for grabs in 2012. Republicans control only two of those offices. In the legislature, all 120 state House and all 50 state Senate seats also will be up.

To regain legislative control, Democrats would need to reverse their losses from this year by winning at least seven seats in the Senate and nine in the House.

Beyond the legislature, the ideological balance of the N.C. Supreme Court could tip to the political left if Associate Justice Paul Newby, backed by Republicans, fails in his re-election effort. Voters will get to choose judges for four seats on the state Court of Appeals as well.

On the federal front, all 13 congressional seats will be up, but no Senate seats. North Carolina’s junior U.S. senator, Democrat Kay Hagan, faces re-election in 2014.

David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.