As a series of volatile midterm elections approach this November, most eyes are on the nation’s capital. But North Carolina could be in for some historic races of its own, as scandals, retirements, and political tides threaten Democrats’ majorities in the state General Assembly.
Political analysts expect a bumpy ride this year as Republicans hope to take the reins of legislative power for the first time since the 19th century. Democrats have solid advantages in both chambers — a 68-52 majority in the House and a 30-20 majority in the Senate. But the GOP smells blood in key races that could tip the balance of power.
To take control, Republicans need to pick up nine seats in the House and six in the Senate. The N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation, a conservative election-analysis group in Raleigh, has identified 10 Senate races and 18 House races as competitive, meaning the victor in 2008 won by 55 percent or less.
The question of who controls the General Assembly beginning next year is doubly important because the ruling party will oversee redrawing the boundaries of legislative and congressional districts to reflect the 2010 census.
Midterm elections typically break in the minority party’s favor, and the trend at the national level favors the GOP, lending credence to the notion that Republicans could shake things up at the state level, too.
“There are clear indicators that the tide is moving against Democrats,” said N.C. State Political Science Professor Andrew Taylor. “Republicans are starting to raise a lot of money, starting to recruit good people.”
Although Democrats easily walked into office in 2008, a deepening recession has caused their popularity to wane. Gov. Bev Perdue’s approval rating stood at 30 percent in mid-February. Since his inauguration, President Barack Obama’s approval rating has dipped by 20 percent and his disapproval spiked by 30 percent.
Beyond a sagging economy and record unemployment, scandal might play a role in how voters cast their ballot this November. Top-level Democrats have found themselves the targets of state and federal probes into issues ranging from campaign finance to real estate deals. This year, Republicans hope the corruption rap will stick.
Easley’s shadow
Ask political analysts who top their list of corrupt public officials going into the mid-term elections, and they’ll say Mike Easley. The former two-term governor is the subject of wide-ranging state and federal investigations into shady pay-to-play schemes, backroom deals, and campaign finance violations.
As first reported by Carolina Journal in April 2006, Easley bought a choice lot in Cannonsgate, a coastal development at Bogue Sound, at a bargain price. Closing documents obtained by the News & Observer of Raleigh last year show that Easley got an additional 25 percent discount of $137,000 at the closing in December 2005.
Easley accepted the deal while his administration allegedly expedited environmental permits for Cannonsgate developers. Ruffin Poole, Easley’s ex-aide and go-to-guy, helped shepherd the permits through and gained significant personal benefits from doing so, according to a 51-count grand jury indictment in late January. Poole’s criminal trial is tentatively set for April 26.
Investigators are also probing fundraising malfeasance by the former governor. After a week long hearing in October, the N.C. Board of Elections fined Easley’s campaign $100,000, partly for free flights Easley failed to disclose on campaign finance reports. The board also referred the case to local prosecutors.
McQueen Campbell, a Raleigh businessman and long-time Easley friend, provided many of the free flights. Easley twice appointed Campbell to the N.C. State University Board of Trustees, where he became chairman before resigning in 2009. Campbell played a role in helping Easley’s wife, Mary, secure a $170,000 per year job at the university.
Easley has yet to be charged, but an indictment could come as early as this spring. Former federal prosecutor Kieran Shanahan told reporters in late January that Poole’s indictment “reeks of conspiracy,” and that more is to come.
“Clearly, the No. 1 target of this is the former governor,” he said.
Perdue has tried to distance herself from her predecessor, not always successfully. In response to two complaints from Republican Party Chairman Tom Fetzer, the State Board of Elections recently opened an investigation into Perdue’s campaign finances.
Perdue’s campaign has admitted that she failed to report six flights from private aircraft owners between 2004 and 2006. The campaign valued the flights at $2,177 in filings submitted Nov. 18 to the Board of Elections.
In August, Perdue’s campaign reimbursed aircraft owners around $18,000 for flights not reported during her 2008 gubernatorial bid. In January, she disclosed eight additional unreported flights she took during her tenure as lieutenant governor.
Fetzer’s complaint also noted that among Perdue’s campaign donors were figures who were subpoenaed to testify at the election board’s investigation of Easley. They include Lanny Wilson, who was referred to as the “Wilmington financier” in a 51-count federal criminal indictment of Easley right-hand man Ruffin Poole, Nick Garrett, who completed an expensive renovation project on Easley’s Southport home, and McQueen Campbell, who regularly provided flights to Easley that were not disclosed on campaign reports.
Retirements feed challengers
Although Easley’s troubles have dominated the news cycle, other top Democratic leaders have faced scandal-related criticism of their own. Worse for Democrats, several of their key leaders in the Senate have resigned or announced they won’t run for re-election, creating competitive districts where few existed before.
State Sen. R.C. Soles, a Tabor City Democrat and the longest-serving legislator in the General Assembly, was indicted by a Columbus County grand jury in January for shooting one of his former legal clients. Soles has admitted to the shooting but said it was in self-defense.
Soles, chairman of the Senate Democratic Caucus, has been accused of sexually molesting young men, a charge that he denies. The State Bureau of Investigation is still looking into the allegations. In late December, he announced that he wouldn’t seek another term in the Senate.
Scandal has also touched another top member of the legislature — former Senate Majority Leader Tony Rand. The attorney general’s office has opened a probe into state purchases from an electronic surveillance supplier with ties to Rand. The company’s former president has accused Rand, who denies any wrongdoing, of insider trading.
As Carolina Journal reported in November, Rand also went in on a questionable real-estate swap with Easley in the 1990s for a home on Bald Head Island, an exclusive coastal development south of Wilmington.
Rand resigned from the Senate Dec. 31.
In total, 10 Democratic incumbent legislators have either resigned or said they won’t seek re-election, including Sens. Julia Boseman of New Hanover County, David Hoyle of Gaston County, and Larry Shaw of Cumberland County.
The number of retirements could lead to a power change-up in certain districts, said Peace College political science professor David McLennan. Even so, he doesn’t see a tidal wave of change coming.
“The gerrymandered districts are to the point where voters look to their representatives and say they haven’t been indicted and have done a good job, and they’ll re-elect them despite problems with Democrats overall,” McLennan said.
No precedent
That scenario has played out in previous years. Although Republicans are hopeful this election cycle could be different, Democratic corruption hasn’t translated into losses at the ballot box, even when scandals dominated the headlines.
In the 2006 election, Republicans hoped to capitalize on former House Speaker Jim Black’s ethics woes that ultimately sent him to jail. Far from losing ground, though, Democrats rode a national wave of discontent with Republicans and expanded their majorities in the state House and Senate.
Even Black, the subject of a federal investigation, managed to hold onto his seat. Months after securing re-election, the Matthews Democrat was convicted on a slew of state and federal charges. He’s now serving a 63-month sentence in federal prison.
Recent state-level corruption hasn’t impacted Democrats running for federal office, either. In 2006, Former Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler knocked off seven-term Republican incumbent Charles Taylor to put the state’s 11th Congressional District in Democrats’ hands. In the 8th District, Democrat Larry Kissell, a former textile worker and high school teacher, came 329 votes shy of beating Republican Robin Hayes.
A same story unfolded in the months leading up to the 2008 election. One of Black’s top legislative allies, former Rep. Thomas Wright of Wilmington, was ousted from the General Assembly and convicted of fraud and obstruction of justice.
But Democrats didn’t suffer at the polls in November, keeping control of the governor’s office, ousting the Republican state auditor, and coming close to beating the Republican commissioner of labor.
They also maintained comfortable control of the General Assembly and captured a majority of the state’s congressional delegation after Kissell’s win over Hayes.
1994 redux?
That record of victories isn’t surprising to Democratic strategist Brad Crone. He said the corruption rap doesn’t translate into the lives of average voters more worried about jobs and the economy.
“The people inside the beltline get excited, but in Rockingham they don’t know who Jim Black is, and they don’t have a clue who Ruffin Poole is,” Crone said. “They only know if their unemployment benefits are ending.”
But some political analysts say the upcoming midterms could be different due to the volume of scandals, particularly those involving Easley.
“It’s the accumulation of effects,” Taylor said. “Over time, peoples’ core understanding of what the state Democratic Party is about is beginning to change.”
As to a repeat of 1994, when Republicans achieved sweeping gains at the state and federal level, Taylor sees significant parallels.
“There’s no doubt at this point in time that the Republicans will pick up seats. The question is how many,” he said.
David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.