John Christy, Alabama state climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, warned a North Carolina audience earlier this year about the potential negative consequences for states that adopt climate change policies. He also discussed global warming with Mitch Kokai for Carolina Journal Radio. (Click here to find a station near you or to learn about the weekly CJ Radio podcast.)
Kokai: We hear quite a bit about the dangers of global warming — our society is not going to be able to survive because of all the problems linked to climate change. As someone who’s studied this very closely, knows the science, knows how to look at the data and interpret it, what should we think about the so-called dangers of global warming?
Christy: I think what disturbs me the most about the global warming issue is that those of us in the climate sciences know that this is an extremely complex system, and someone who is speaking out with what looks like astounding confidence about what they think the climate is doing, really hasn’t studied it carefully, because the climate is too complex to predict even 10 days out. And this notion that we know exactly how all the processes work, how they’re going to play out in the future, simply because of a minor trace gas that has been increasing, is really hubris, I think. We don’t know a lot about how this climate system works.
Kokai: Open-minded listeners might ask, “OK, so why do so many people believe there is such a big problem? Why are we hearing so much about global warming and the problems it’s going to create?”
Christy: OK, I’m asked that a lot, and I don’t know the motivations of all the different types of people. Some see it as a way to increase their business share, because it’s a great business plan when you think about it – to get the government to force the public to buy your product. So, if you make windmills, the best thing you can do is have the government make a law that utilities have to use windmills to generate their energy. Think about it. Then others are more in the religious realm, I think. They view the earth as this delicate system that has never been disturbed in the past, and that we are the evil infestation on the planet that is trying to destroy and disturb this natural balance, when, in fact, the earth system has never been in balance. It has gone through tremendous upheavals in the past. And the best I can tell, everything that you see in the climate system – the icebergs breaking off or Arctic melting or whatnot – all of that has happened before, without human influence. So just the observation that something happens in the climate system in no way points the finger at humankind as the cause.
Kokai: Should we be concerned at all?
Christy: There are many things about which to be concerned in the environmental system. No. 1, I think, would be the water quality we have across the planet. The lack of good water, good sanitation, is probably the leading killer, in terms of the environment or the world. That’s No. 1. And another one is the lack of energy that people have around the world forces them to use wood, or dung, for energy. These are very poor sources, very polluting sources. And so they end up destroying forests, habitats, and really destroying their environment as a result of a lack of affordable and reliable and clean energy.
Carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere. There’s no question about that. And one of the benefits of that that is rarely mentioned is that about one-sixth of the food production we have in the world today is due to the extra CO2 we’ve put back into the atmosphere. That’s a pretty big benefit when you think about worldwide, that much food. But it is not a gas that is toxic, so breathing it is not going to be a problem. We breathe it all the time; we produce it. And CO2 will cause the radiation balance, the way the energy fluxes within the earth system, to change. There’s no question about that. But it turns out there are bigger greenhouse gases and effects out there, much bigger than carbon dioxide. And how they respond to the little bit of extra carbon dioxide is really key.
I think I would want to add on this point that, if you are concerned about humanity, it turns out – and I lived in Africa, so I know this to be true – that without energy, life is brutal and short. And so going around the planet, claiming that energy is evil and bad is looking straight into the facts of the matter and lying because energy means life. There is no question about it, and so denying access to energy that’s affordable and reliable, in a way, is creating terrific burdens and hardships for people around the world. And, as someone who’s a member of this human race, I find it very hard to stand on that side of the issue.
Kokai: For people who don’t have your training, those who know only what they read, see, and hear in the news, what should they be looking for to help them decide what the truth is about this issue?
Christy: I think fundamentally what a person should look for is, how much do I get for what I pay? If a nationwide law is established, for example, to follow California A.B. [Assembly Bill] 1493, the average family will be paying about $4,000 extra for an automobile. That will have such a miniscule effect. This automobile is supposed to have better emission standards. The improvement, or the reduction in emissions for that cost, is so tiny, we would not – we will not be able to measure it in 100 years, much less in the next 50. So what do you get when you pay something? And the answer is these regulations that are being proposed to make energy more expensive will not have a detectable impact on climate. Look at the numbers. And that’s what I think – I hope at the end of the day – will impress our lawmakers not to enact things that make energy more expensive, because there will be no climate impact at the end.
Kokai: What about state-level action to tackle climate change? Does it make sense for North Carolina or any other state to adopt policies or take other steps geared toward reducing carbon dioxide emissions or other greenhouse gases?
Christy: I would say, as the Alabama state climatologist, that if North Carolina wants to shoot itself in the foot and make its energy more expensive, we’re going to put a sign out on Interstate 40 right out here and say, “Alabama is open for business.” Because we understand that people’s jobs depend on low-cost and affordable energy, and we have seen our economy grow rapidly at the expense of states like Florida and California, and maybe even North Carolina in the future – because businesses can’t operate by artificially increased prices for things. Places like Alabama are the last hope in this country. If uniform laws are established across the county … I’ve talked to many manufacturers. They are just going to go overseas. And here’s the ironic part of that: They will go overseas, they will build a plant that is far less efficient than what is established in this country, and so the end result of pushing jobs overseas is to actually create more of this carbon dioxide than reduce it.