North Carolina is little more than a month away from the primary elections that will set the stage for another round of high-profile electoral battles in November. As voters prepare to head to the polls, the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation is watching the state’s most important electoral contests. Executive director Joe Stewart recently discussed the 2014 elections with Mitch Kokai for Carolina Journal Radio. (Click here to find a station near you or to learn about the weekly CJ Radio podcast.)
Kokai: So 2014 is going to be a big year. What are some of the main things the FreeEnterprise Foundation is going to be focusing on?
Stewart: Well, the top of the ticket will be dominated by the U.S. Senate race here. In all likelihood, a tremendous amount of outside attention, money coming in from outside groups in support of or in opposition to the candidates. I think we are safe in saying that there is, in all likelihood, a significant impact on some of the down-ballot races as a result of the increased turnout that we will see from all of that flurry of activity in the Senate race.
And not just in the general election. In the Republican primary, where the person will be selected to run against, in all likelihood, Kay Hagan, the incumbent Democrat, you will likely see a significant amount of Republican turnout heightened in parts of the state where you might not otherwise see large turnout numbers because it’s a midterm election, and voter interest and enthusiasm is not as great in these midterm elections. So we’re likely to see a lot of activity and an impact on those elections we’ll have to monitor and report on as it develops.
Kokai: In some parts of the country an incumbent U.S. senator comes up for re-election, and most people would say, “OK, this person is going to win. This is an incumbent with the advantages of incumbency.” North Carolina, though, we don’t tend to have that sort of story, do we?
Stewart: No. In fact, in the history of our U.S. Senate races, it has a tendency to go back and forth quite a bit. I think one of the dynamics is, looking at North Carolina’s electoral population on a statewide basis, there is a more relative parity between Democrat and Republican performance, and so it’s not unlikely for a statewide race like a U.S. Senate race to be highly competitive.
You would think Kay Hagan, as the Democratic incumbent, would have some competitive advantage, but I think we’re seeing a significant amount of the fallout from the failed Obamacare rollout impacting Hagan’s numbers at this point. Recent polling has shown she’s either up by just a small percentage over an unnamed Republican opponent, or the unnamed Republican opponent is up by a small percentage. Interestingly enough, for any incumbent in a statewide office to not be above 50 percent at this point is some significant indication of just how competitive the race is likely to be.
Kokai: And with that race and how it ends up turning out between now and November, when people actually cast their votes, how might that affect the other races that are down-ballot?
Stewart: We’ll see, particularly in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, we have two open-seat congressional races that will be impacted. Current Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre in the 7th District down in the southeastern part of the state announcing he’s not running for reelection. David Rouzer, his opponent from two years ago, announcing he will run again, and Woody White, another Republican candidate having announced. That district is very likely to go Republican in 2014 since McIntyre is not running again. So you may see a far more competitive Republican primary.
The same in the 6th District, where Howard Coble, longtime Republican incumbent, announced he’s not running for re-election, and a number of people announcing their intentions to seek their party’s nomination for that House seat as well.
Kokai: Given the way the congressional districts are drawn now, does it look like Democrats have much of a chance to pick up any seats that are now held by Republicans?
Stewart: No. In fact, I would say everything we know today, the House District 7 race will likely represent a conversion from a Democratic incumbency to a Republican incumbency. The 6th District, I think, is very likely to remain in Republican hands. And so I think the net pickup for Republicans we’re anticipating, at this point, among the 13 congressional districts, is one additional seat, for 10 of them held by Republicans and three by Democrats after the 2014 elections.
Kokai: Let’s turn our attention now to the North Carolina General Assembly. Right now Republicans hold supermajorities in both the state House and the state Senate. What sort of impact will the 2014 elections have on that makeup?
Stewart: Looking at the districts such as they are, I think we are safe in assuming that this is a high-water mark for Republican control of the General Assembly. The numbers are probably as high as they could possibly be. At this point, given the relative enthusiasm among likely Republican voters based on the Obamacare phenomena, I think it’s highly unlikely that you see a significant switch in the number of House and Senate seats controlled by Democrats.
I think the Republicans are in good shape. Their fundraising has been successful to date. They’re well-organized and ready to go in this election cycle. I think if there are some seats that go from Republican control to Democratic control, it’s far more likely to be about some local dynamic — either the candidate or the amount of money the campaign was able to raise or some other local issue that influenced voters there locally. But at this point it seems highly unlikely that you’ll have any significant reduction in the number of seats controlled by Republicans after the 2014 elections are over.
Kokai: You mentioned money. During a recent presentation for the John Locke Foundation’s Shaftesbury Society, you also pointed out one of the key issues in the election is the likely growth in the amount of spending outside of the political parties and the candidates themselves. How is that likely to impact 2014 elections?
Stewart: We’ve seen a dramatic increase. In 2010, in that election cycle, the first time independent expenditure became a dynamic in our elections, about $6.5 million spent among all races. Two years later, in the 2012 elections, you saw that number more than double to about $15 million. Already — in large part because of the competitiveness of the U.S. Senate race and the fact that the partisan balance of power in the U.S. Senate is really up for grabs in terms of the seat here in North Carolina — we may see an infusion of as much as $40 million from outside sources. Already probably close to $8 million has been spent in advertising for and against incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan or in support of one of the Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate.
It will have an impact in that so much additional advertising is likely to drive voter enthusiasm, voter engagement. It may well impact the turnout model — which voters actually show up on Election Day to support candidates. But at this point, the numbers have been running about 2-1 in advertising against Kay Hagan, and I think that’s probably the ratio we’ll see this go throughout the election. And that’s got to help Republican candidates in down-ballot races as such a significant volume of advertising and opposition to Kay Hagan is filling the airwaves.
Kokai: Between now and Election Day, what are some of the key things you’re going to be watching to see how they impact the electoral results?
Stewart: A significant driver of voter enthusiasm will still be the economy. And how we see the unemployment rates and the relative perception of how the recovery is going for most families in North Carolina will undoubtedly be a factor. There is a phenomenon known as the six-year itch. The final midterm of an incumbent president has a tendency to be an election where that president’s party does not do well.
The voter enthusiasm — their engagement, the way we measure that through public opinion research, their expressed desire to support candidates in an election cycle — we’ll monitor that. I think that’s probably the story for 2014 — which voters are most enthusiastic about going to the polls and casting a ballot in 2014.