With national polls pointing to a tsunami of anti-incumbent sentiment, the disruption also can be felt at the state level as the general election season gets underway in the Tar Heel State.

For months, pundits have compared this year’s midterm elections to 1994, when Republicans retook Congress and captured the North Carolina House for the first time in a century. In recent weeks, political prognosticators have firmed up their predictions that an equivalent surge is in the mix for Nov. 2.

Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats in the U.S. House and 10 seats in the U.S. Senate to take control. The Cook Political Report now projects at least a 40-seat pickup for the GOP in the House, and seven to nine seats in the Senate.

“In 1994, there was a pickup of 52 seats [for Republicans],” said N.C. State University political science professor Andy Taylor. “Democrats picked up 31 in 2006. So, 40 for a wave election in the modern era is doable. The prospects are certainly very possible for the Republicans at this point.”

The Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling gives the GOP a 45-42 percent edge in a generic congressional ballot. Independent and unaffiliated voters fuel that advantage.

The results of two U.S. House races in North Carolina — the 8th and 11th Congressional Districts — could contribute to a Republican takeover. The first race pits freshman incumbent Democrat Larry Kissell against former sports broadcaster Harold Johnson. A Libertarian Party candidate, Thomas Hill, is running as well.

A recent poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee gave Kissell a 48-34 percent edge, but another internal survey from Johnson’s campaign put the advantage at just 39-34 percent.

Poor unemployment numbers in the district have dogged Kissell, although he’s managed to slip through a briar patch of controversial votes over the last 18 months that could have landed him in even hotter water with voters.

“I think Kissell has done a very good job of constituent outreach and availability to the citizens he serves,” said Democratic strategist Brad Crone. “The politics are going to be heated, and it’s going to be a dynamic race.”

In the 11th District, Democratic two-termer Heath Shuler is facing off against political newcomer Jeff Miller. A Civitas poll released in early August put the race at a dead heat.

Gibbs Knotts, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, said that Shuler has done a good job retaining support from the large number of conservative Democrats in the district.

“The sense is that Shuler has done an effective job since Obama has been in office of distancing himself from a good number of Obama’s policies, and certainly the Democratic controlled House and Senate,” Knotts said.

On the U.S. Senate side, one of the rare competitive races for a Republican incumbent pits North Carolina U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, first elected in 2004, against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. Burr has a sizeable fundraising advantage. And while earlier polls put Marshall within striking distance, a Rasmussen Reports poll from early September gave Burr a 54-38 lead..

State races

To shrug off the mantle of permanent minority, Republicans need a net gain of nine seats in the state House and six in the state Senate. Aside from a brief stint in the 1990s, the GOP hasn’t controlled either chamber during the 20th or 21st centuries.

Political experts say that could change eight weeks from now. It’ll be a good year for Republicans at the state level since voters’ anger with federal elected officials will filter down, Taylor said.

“It could well be the case that one or both chambers go Republican again,” he said.

Raleigh-based political consultant John Davis, the former director of a pro-business nonprofit, says that economic concerns are front and center for voters this year.

“There is a tremendous amount of money being spent [by the government] and a tremendous amount of debt, and voters frankly do not see a change in their personal sense of peace about their job stability,” Davis said. “Most people have jobs, but most people are concerned about the long-term stability.”

The GOP has a 49-41 percent margin in Public Policy Polling’s generic legislative ballot. Unlike past elections, Democrats haven’t outraised Republicans significantly in campaign cash.

In addition, retirements in key districts long held by Democrats, mixed with good recruitment strategies by Republicans, raise the chance of a turnover.

Carolina Journal has compiled a list of 30 key legislative races that could decide which party controls the General Assembly next year.

N.C. Senate

• District 8: David Redwine (D) vs. Bill Rabon (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+3
Latest Polling (Civitas): Rabon (50 percent), Redwine (35 percent)

• District 9: Jim Leutze (D) vs. Thom Goolsby (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+3
Latest Polling (Civitas): Goolsby (55 percent), Leutze (37 percent)

• District 10: Dewey Hudson (D) vs. Brent Jackson (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+3
Latest Polling (Civitas): Hudson (44 percent), Jackson (36 percent)

• District 19: Margaret Dickson (D) vs. Wesley Meredith (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+4
Latest Polling (Civitas): Meredith (42 percent), Dickson (38 percent)

• District 24: (Incumbent) Tony Foriest (D) vs. Rick Gunn (R) and Barry Coe (L)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+3
Latest Polling (Carolina Strategy Group): Gunn (45 percent), Foriest (41 percent)

• District 25: (Incumbent) Bill Purcell (D) vs. Jason Phibbs (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+1
Latest Polling (Civitas): Purcell (48 percent), Phibbs (40 percent)

• District 43: Jim Long (D) vs. Kathy Harrington (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+10
Latest Polling: None

• District 45: Incumbent Steve Goss (D) vs. Dan Soucek (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+10
Latest Polling: None

• District 47: (Incumbent) Joe Sam Queen (D) vs. Ralph Hise (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+6
Latest Polling (Carolina Strategy Group): Hise (45 percent), Queen (41 percent)

• District 50: (Incumbent) John Snow (D) vs. Jim Davis (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+6
Latest Polling: None

N.C. House

• District 3: (Incumbent) Alice Underhill (D) vs. Norman Sanderson (R) and Herb Sobel (L)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+7
Latest Polling: None

• District 4: Mott Blair (D) vs. Jimmy Dixon (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: Neutral
Latest Polling (Civitas): Dixon (43 percent), Blair (39 percent)

• District 6: (Incumbent) Arthur Williams (D) vs. Bill Cook (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+2
Latest Polling (Civitas): Cook (43 percent), Williams (41 percent)

• District 9: (Incumbent) Marian McLawhorn (D) vs. Stan Larson (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+2
Latest Polling: None

• District 10: (Incumbent) Van Braxton (D) vs. Stephen LaRoque (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+3
Latest Polling (Carolina Strategy Group): LaRoque (45 percent), Braxton (37 percent)

• District 22: (Incumbent) William Brisson (D) vs. John Szoka (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+3
Latest Polling (Civitas): Brisson (42 percent), Szoka (39 percent)

• District 25: (Incumbent) Randy Stewart (D) vs. Jeff Collins (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+2
Latest Polling (Civitas): Collins (45 percent), Stewart (37 percent)

• District 34: (Incumbent) Grier Martin (D) vs. Steve Henion (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+1
Latest Polling (Civitas): Martin (47 percent), Henion (43 percent)

• District 41: Chris Heagarty (D) vs. Tom Murry (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: Neutral
Latest Polling (Carolina Strategy Group): Murry (45 percent), Heagarty (35 percent)

• District 45: (Incumbent) Rick Glazier (D) vs. Jackie Warner (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+4
Latest Polling (Carolina Strategy Group): Warner (41 percent), Glazier (39 percent)

• District 49: (Incumbent) John May (D) vs. Glen Bradley (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+3
Latest Polling (Public Policy Polling): Bradley (43 percent), May (35 percent)

• District 51: (Incumbent) Jimmy Love (D) vs. Mike Stone (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+1
Latest Polling (Civitas): Stone (47 percent), Love (43 percent)

• District 77: (Incumbent) Lorene Coates (D) vs. Harry Warren (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: Neutral
Latest Polling (Carolina Strategy Group): Coates (49 percent), Warren (33 percent)

• District 81: (Incumbent) Hugh Holliman (D) vs. Rayne Brown (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+3
Latest Polling (Carolina Strategy Group): Brown (45 percent), Holliman (39 percent)

• District 88: David Mundy (D) vs. Mark Hollo (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+11
Latest Polling: None

• District 93: (Incumbent) Cullie Tarleton (D) vs. Jonathan Jordan (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+3
Latest Polling: None

• District 112: Jim Proctor (D) vs. Mike Hager (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+7
Latest Polling: None

• District 116: (Incumbent) Jane Whilden (D) vs. Tim Moffitt (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: R+2
Latest Polling (Civitas): Moffitt (45 percent), Whilden (39 percent)

• District 118: (Incumbent) Ray Rapp (D) vs. Sam Edwards (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+1
Latest Polling: None

• District 119: (Incumbent) Phil Haire (D) vs. Dodie Allen (R)
Civitas Partisan Index: D+1
Latest Polling: None

David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.