North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell was one of three Tar Heel Democrats to break ranks with party leaders and vote against the House version of health care reform in November. Political observers say that vote could play a role in Kissell’s bid for re-election this year as he walks the fine line between pleasing Beltway Democrats and his constituents — many of whom are more conservative than his party’s leaders.

“[Kissell] took a position against his sitting president. It was pretty unpopular with the left,” said David McLennan, a political science professor at Peace College in Raleigh, in a telephone interview with Carolina Journal.

Kissell, who represents the state’s 8th Congressional District stretching from Charlotte to Fayetteville, joined 39 House Democrats in voting against the health care reform bill. It passed by five votes Nov. 7.

The Senate and House have yet to reconcile differences between pending proposals in both chambers. That’s partly because of Republican Scott Brown’s victory in a special election in January, which ended the Democrats’ 60-vote supermajority in the Senate.

Days before the House vote, Kissell issued a press release announcing that he would oppose the legislation, citing Medicare cuts as the reason.

“While I believe comprehensive health care and insurance reform is necessary, I cannot vote for H.R. 3962 in its current form, which cuts $399 billion from Medicare,” he said.

That vote was a smart political move given the dynamics of his district, political experts say.

“If you take a look at that district, even though it has a moderate flavor to it, it’s the kind of district you wouldn’t necessarily say is a big supporter of President Obama’s plans for health care,” McLennan said. “You have constituencies there who would be concerned.”

A thorn in their side

But it’s a stand that’s angered many on the left. The liberal blogosphere has called Kissell on the carpet and accused him of flip-flopping. Some of those same progressives volunteered for his 2008 campaign, walking door to door and making phone calls. Now, they feel betrayed.

And Kissell’s troubles aren’t confined to grass-roots activists, either. Democratic Party leaders in his district have toyed with the idea of mounting a primary challenge. The News & Observer of Raleigh reported in December that some Democrats were courting Chris Kouri, a Charlotte attorney and former football player, to primary Kissell. Kouri ran unsuccessfully against Republican Rep. Robin Hayes in 2002.

A survey by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found that about one-third of Democratic primary voters in Kissell’s district support replacing him with a more progressive option. Although no candidate has entered the race official, the angst among liberals is real.

“When you send representatives to Congress, we understand there are things they have to compromise on,” Michael Lawson, an 8th District Democratic Party official, told The Charlotte Observer in November. “There are also things you shouldn’t compromise on. And [health care] is one of them.”

Despite the friendly fire from his liberal base, Kissell remains aligned with many of the movement’s objectives. In addition to contributing to one of North Carolina’s most oft-read liberal blogs, he posts to the popular leftist blog the Daily Kos. The American Civil Liberties Union gives him perfect marks on their congressional scorecard.

He also broke with moderate Democrats in voting against the pro-life Stupak Amendment that bars taxpayer dollars from funding abortions in a proposed federal health insurance program. He votes with party leaders 96 percent of the time.

But the handful of times that Kissell has parted ways with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s agenda, it’s been on big items. Beyond health care reform, Kissell voted against cap-and-trade legislation, heralded by environmentalists as vital to fight global climate change. Such votes have stoked the ire of the left, leading to criticism and even protests outside his district office.

Party strategists, though, are working for cooler heads. “If Democrats want to keep that seat, he’s going to have to be in the middle,” Brad Crone, a Democratic consultant, told CJ in an interview. “It’s a matter of whether you want to scream at each other or whether you want to govern.”

A competitive district

Political analysts regard the 8th District as the most likely in North Carolina to switch parties in the upcoming midterms. The Cook Political Report gives Kissell a slight edge in the race; it’s the only district in the state that doesn’t favor one party solidly.

A PPP poll from mid-January found that 45 percent of Kissell’s constituency approves of the job he’s doing, 30 percent disapprove, and 24 percent aren’t sure. The poll also found that he maintains a sizeable advantage over his Republican challengers, who suffer from name recognition hurdles.

Ignorance could play a role in those numbers, though, since nearly half of respondents falsely believe that Kissell voted for the House health care bill. Fifty-two percent of those surveyed said they oppose the health care bill passed by the House in November, compared to 35 percent who support it.

Despite Kissell’s early lead, the 8th District remains Republicans’ top target in North Carolina, according to N.C. State University political science professor Andy Taylor.

“It’s the most likely district that would go,” Taylor said, “and it’s certainly the kind of district that Republicans would need to win if they believe they can get a majority [in the House], there’s no doubt about that.”

Even though Republicans are salivating at the thought of recapturing the seat, Kissell has widespread appeal to the district’s blue-collar base. He spent 27 years working in the local textile industry and seven as a social studies teacher in his hometown of Biscoe.

That background resonates with the district’s rural demographics. The 8th tends to vote Republican in presidential races and Democrat in statewide contests. Bush easily won there in 2004, while Obama took 52 percent of the vote in 2008.

But Kissell is still a relative newcomer to the political scene and lacks the experience of multiple campaigns. He tried to knock off Hayes in 2006 but came up just shy. The political tides didn’t coalesce in Kissell’s favor for another two years, when Obama’s coattails helped him secure a 30,000-vote win over Hayes.

Those coattails have “completely disappeared,” McLennan said, and the economic recession doesn’t bode well for Kissell. And since Democrats are on the defensive nationwide, they’re going to be forced to make strategic decisions about which races to pour money into.

“They want to keep the Kissell seat, but they’ve got some other issues to think about,” McLennan said.

Crone said the race is going to be “highly competitive,” and the weight will be on Kissell to shore up his base and appeal to independents.

“The seat is not a gimme for either party. They’re going to have to earn their votes,” he said.

Kissell has avoided the fray and declined to comment on the race. “The congressman is focused on his job representing the people of the 8th District — not criticism from either party,” said Kissell’s chief of staff Leanne Powell in an e-mailed statement.

David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.