RALEIGH – Labor Day is past, the ad purchases are proliferating, and campaigns are crisscrossing the state earning as many column inches and broadcast seconds as possible. We’re now in the homestretch of the 2008 election cycle, which is guaranteed to be historic and likely to keep surprising us.

It’s been a long, long time since North Carolina politics has offered so many compelling stories at the same time. Just consider a few of them:

• The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden appear to have gotten a medium-sized boost in the polls from a well-produced party convention in Denver. Just hours after Obama delivered The Speech in front of tens of thousands of cheering fans at Invesco Field, John McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, thrilling GOP conservatives and triggering a sudden surge in campaign donations. Palin immediately drew close scrutiny and, in response to some truly revolting rumors on the web, announced that her 17-year-old daughter and her fiancée are expecting a baby. In North Carolina, Obama remains within striking distance of McCain.

• An estimated $3.5 million ad campaign from a Republican Governors Association PAC is about to begin, targeting Beverly Perdue. In recent weeks, Pat McCrory was the target of independent expenditures funded by out-of-state unions and Democratic groups. In a year in which a Democratic presidential candidate is within striking distance, it makes no sense that down-ballot Republicans would be competitive – and yet McCrory remains close on the heels of Perdue. It may be time to toss the old rules out the window.

• Another rule of thumb was that Elizabeth Dole, longtime fixture of Republican administrations and politics, had enough crossover appeal to block Democratic challengers even in a Democratic-tilting year. But Kay Hagan, the talented and powerful state senator from Greensboro, is proving to be one of the best candidate recruits of the 2008 cycle. Also benefiting from out-of-state groups attacking her opponent, Hagan has moved North Carolina’s Senate race into contention, though it still remains about 7th or 8th on the list of potential Democratic takeovers (which should tell you something).

• With McCain, McCrory, and Dole fighting it out with strong Democratic candidates for statewide votes, GOP activists ought to be bracing for bad news in races further down the ballot. Amazingly, they’re not. Many of them expect to shrink the 31-19 Democratic edge in the state senate, thanks to solid candidate recruitment and incumbents either retiring or running for higher office. Some also think Republicans will make gains in the house. Not surprisingly, Democratic leaders in both chambers rebut some predictions and say that fundraising advantages and favorable political winds will help them expand their majorities.

• Several other statewide contests appear competitive and bear watching, including races for lieutenant governor (Democratic Sen. Walter Dalton vs. Republican Sen. Robert Pittenger), state treasurer (Democratic Sen. Janet Cowell vs. Republican Rep. Bill Daughtridge), and state auditor (Republican incumbent Les Merritt vs. former employee Beth Woods).

We’ll be providing CJ readers with plenty of coverage of these and other political stories in the last two months of the cycle. I will be devoting columns to each of the statewide races, the judicial contests, and the battles over control of the state house and senate. Visit CJ Online each morning to get the latest news headlines, and pop over to The Locker Room for my daily roundup of news from the political trail. CJ reporters will also be filing stories on major policy issues in the political mix this year, including economic development, education, fiscal policy, mental-health reform, transportation, and government corruption.

Drop me a line if you have questions, concerns, or story ideas. And make sure your seatbelt is securely fastened – there’s plenty of turbulence ahead before we reach Election Day.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.