This week’s “Daily Journal” guest columnist is David Bass, associate editor of Carolina Journal.
RALEIGH — On a sweltering Tar Heel evening in late June, Republican Party powerbrokers breathed a sigh of relief heard around North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District. The reason: Tim D’Annunzio had lost his bid to snag the party’s nomination to face incumbent Larry Kissell, a former textile worker on his freshman re-election outing.
Many were glad to see the loose-cannon candidate from Raeford go down in a blaze of glory. (The final tally was 60-40 percent, far wider than the 37-33 percent split in the first primary). D’Annunzio has a colorful past, a tendency toward unorthodox fundraising methods, an affinity for filing lawsuits, and a habit of condemning talk radio hosts to eternal damnation.
Rather than D’Annunzio, GOP voters went for former Charlotte sports broadcaster Harold Johnson. Politically, it was a smart move. According to a survey by the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling, Johnson had a much better chance than D’Annunzio of offing Kissell in the general election.
Election data already reflect the tightened race. Within a few days of Johnson’s victory, the Cook Political Report moved the 8th from “lean” Democratic to “toss up.” The group said national Democrats “may have to make a hefty investment” to salvage the seat. In an anti-establishment year, the Kissell-Johnson match-up will be a barnburner — maybe even a farm burner.
But could the fire-and-brimstone primary scuffle — which dragged on for months and drained wads of campaign cash for both Johnson and D’Annunzio — damage Republicans’ chances in the fall? A Cabarrus County Independent Tribune story from late June floated the idea that Johnson will have a hard time coercing D’Annunzio supporters into his camp.
Without a doubt, the scuffle hurt Johnson. D’Annunzio’s refusal to endorse his opponent illustrated the wound better than anything else. “I cannot endorse [Johnson’s] tactics, and I can’t endorse his lack of morality he exhibited through this run,” D’Annunzio said shortly after the returns came in.
Ouch. But even though the lengthy primary didn’t help Johnson, it won’t hurt him by the time voters mark their ballots this fall. Four months is an eternity in politics, and the scorched-earth Johnson-D’Annunzio clash will be a distant memory.
For comparison, think of the Democrats’ 2008 presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. It roared through June and was crammed with an assortment of nastiness. Democrats also were tormented by the prospect of disenchanted Hillary voters pulling the lever for John McCain out of spite.
Those fears never materialized. Obama walked to a 53-46 percent popular vote victory and a smashing in the Electoral College. Macro-political issues — namely, the worsening of the Great Recession in September 2008 — overshadowed Democrats’ grudges and misgivings from the summer.
Look for the same to happen in the Kissell-Johnson face-off. More than a tough primary, the wild card will be whether the national parties pour resources into the race. Republicans, pinched for money, could funnel cash into districts easier to pick off. Likewise, Democrats could divert cash to their more vulnerable big boys at the expense of the little guys.
Plenty hinges on how Johnson fares during the summer months, too. His grasp of the issues is tenuous, a fact that D’Annunzio capitalized on by airing snippets of a radio interview in which Johnson had trouble naming what his top priority in Washington would be. Johnson has to get educated, and fast.
Kissell has plenty of ailments of his own. He’s had difficulty shoring up his base, facing challengers and would-be challengers twice from the left (one a former campaign volunteer, the other a former staffer.) The party’s leftist leadership has forced him and dozens of other centrist Democrats to navigate a thorny tangle of Obama-induced issues — everything from cap and trade to remaking the nation’s health care system. That’s hardly a sumptuous legislative diet.
Similar to Obama’s fortunes in 2008, though, macro-issues will dominate the race. And although Kissell has tilted right on several key votes, the one that could end up hurting him the most is the one that he has little choice about — voting for Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker.
In the end, the results will come down to the situation on the ground, especially the unemployment rate, which is abysmal in the 8th. D’Annunzio will be far from voters’ minds when Nov. 2 rolls around.