With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, otherwise secure Democratic incumbents are facing surprise challenges from Republican foes in six second-tier legislative races — raising the possibility of upsets.

Republicans are rallying to recapture the General Assembly for the first time since the 19th century, putting Democrats on the defensive statewide. Contests in a handful of traditionally uncompetitive districts have tightened this year, leading to opportunities for the GOP.

“There are always races that don’t quite end up as predicted,” said Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at N.C. State University. “It might have something to do with the candidates, it might have something to do with an issue that is really specific to the district, it might have something to do with the issues. As a result, you have an outcome that isn’t quite what’s expected given the general political climate.”

House District 1

State Rep. Bill Owens, D-Pasquotank, has represented this district encompassing northeast North Carolina for eight terms. He’s run unopposed every election cycle since 1994, but this year faces a serious challenge from Elizabeth City businessman John Woodard.

Owens was ranked the second most effective lawmaker during the 2010 short session by the N.C. Center for Public Policy Research. He came in one place behind House Speaker Joe Hackney, a Democrat from Orange County. Owens chairs the powerful House Rules Committee.

In a surprising twist, a Civitas poll from early August gave Woodard a 44-41 percent edge over Owens, with 15 percent of voters undecided. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 47-24 percent in the district, and unaffiliated voters take up another 29 percent.

Despite the close polling numbers, Owens has a significant fundraising edge in the race. He brought in $35,752.01 in the first and second quarters of 2010 and had $85,096.16 cash on hand on June 30. In contrast, Woodard raised $2,255 during the same period and had the same amount, $2,255, on hand at the end of the reporting period.

House District 44

The resignation of Democrat Margaret Dickson to fill former Senate Majority Leader Tony Rand’s seat left this Democratic-leaning district more competitive. Bookstore owner Diane Parfitt was appointed to complete Dickson’s term in the House, and she’s now running for re-election against Republican Johnny Dawkins, an insurance broker and former member of the Fayetteville City Council.

A Civitas poll from September put Dawkins at a 48-40 percent advantage over Parfitt. Twelve percent said they were undecided. Democrats have a 2-to-1 edge in registered voters in the district.

Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising and had comparable amounts in their campaign kitties at the end of the second quarter.

House District 45

A poll that turned heads in August came courtesy of the GOP-aligned Carolina Strategy Group. It put four-term incumbent Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, behind Republican foe Jackie Warner by two percentage points.

That was a surprising result given the district’s voting composition and Glazier’s sizeable campaign war chest. Glazier had $31,847 on hand at the end of the second quarter, compared to Warner’s $987.12. Twenty-nine percent of registered voters in the district are Republicans.

Warner, a public school principal and former town commissioner for Hope Mills, has a long history in the 45th House District. Her husband, Alex Warner, spent about two decades as the district’s Democratic representative before losing to Glazier in the 2004 primary. Two years later, he switched parties and tried to recapture the seat as a Republican without success.

Glazier ran uncontested in 2008. He serves as a vice-chairman of the House Appropriations and Rules committees.

Senate District 1

In another potential upset of the General Assembly’s leadership structure, Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, faces a strong challenger in Republican Hood Richardson, a self-employed engineer and Beaufort County commissioner.

Basnight has served 13 terms in the state Senate, often being re-elected by overwhelming margins. One of the state’s best fundraisers, Basnight had over $700,000 in campaign cash at the end of the second quarter, compared to Richardson’s $3,587.35.

Although district voters consistently have voted for Basnight, they trend Republican at the federal level. GOP presidential candidates captured 54 percent of the vote in 2008 and 58 percent in 2004. Even so, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1.

A Civitas poll from August underscored the remaining difficulty Richardson has in defeating Basnight, even in a favorable election year. The Republican trailed 39-49 percent in the poll.

Senate District 5

In a rematch from 2008, Democratic Rep. Don Davis faces Republican Louis Pate in this district covering parts of Greene, Pitt, and Wayne counties. Two years ago, Davis won the election with less than 53 percent of the vote in a strong election for Democratic candidates. This time around, the GOP sees an opportunity for a shift.

A new poll from Carolina Strategy Group gives Pate a 2 percentage point lead. An earlier poll from April, conducted by the same firm, gave Davis a 42-40 percent edge.

Also in April, the one-term Democrat caught flak after he was stopped for speeding in Zebulon while en route to a legislative committee meeting. Davis publicly questioned if current laws exempted lawmakers from speeding tickets if they were engaged in public business.

Pate outraised Davis during the first and second quarters by more than $20,000, but a portion came from a personal loan Pate made to his campaign.

Davis is considered vulnerable this election in part because he hails from Greene County, which represents just 14 percent of voters in the district. Pate, on the other hand, hails from Wayne County, which represents nearly half of voters.

Senate District 25

State Rep. Bill Purcell, D-Scotland, is running for a seventh term representing this district that comprises Anson, Richmond, Scotland, and Stanly counties.

Purcell has a 48-40 percent advantage, according to a Civitas poll from July, but the race is competitive in the fundraising department. Phibbs took in $12,160.22 in the first and second quarters compared to Purcell’s $18,958.55.

David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.