A new sheriff is coming to town — a budget-slashing, tax-cutting lawman. And his badge bears the initials GOP. At least, that’s what the North Carolina Republican Party wants voters to think.

At a kick-off press conference Tuesday morning, Republican leaders and candidates launched what could be a historic general election season with a simple message: we’re the best hope for getting the Tar Heel State’s fiscal house in order.

“The basic problem the House Democrats have is that they came in with a recession and they did exactly the wrong thing for a recession,” said Rep. Paul “Skip” Stam, the House Republican Minority Leader.

Stam was referring to the General Assembly’s recently completed short session. Democratic majorities passed a budget with no GOP backing in the House and scant support in the Senate. Analysts predict the state will face a $3.5 billion budget shortfall next year.

That, mixed with near double digit unemployment and anger over massive debt at the federal level, is giving Republicans their best shot of retaking one or both chambers of the legislature.

“This is the best crop of candidates statewide that I’ve ever seen,” said N.C. Republican Party Chairman Tom Fetzer, alluding to a record number of candidates fielded by the GOP this year. “This is going to be a big year for the Republican Party.”

Undaunted by Democratic incumbents’ hefty campaign war chests, Fetzer said the party has “never been as competitive in fundraising” as this year. He added that Republican campaign workers already have made 600,000 phone calls to independent and unaffiliated voters, a growing political demographic that both parties are vying for.

On that front, Republicans are faring well. A poll commissioned by the conservative Civitas Institute gave GOP candidates a 39-27 percent edge over Democrats on a generic ballot for state candidates. At the federal level, the Democrat-aligned Public Policy Polling found that Republicans lead a generic congressional ballot 45-42 percent.

Even so, Republicans have reason to be cautious. Other surveys show that voters are dissatisfied with both parties. A GOP victory this year might be more a reflection of anti-incumbent fervor than a genuine philosophical shift, said David McLennan, a political science professor at Peace College in Raleigh.

“I would not see it as a mandate for Republicans and Republican ideology,” he said.

David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.