Six months ago, few pundits would have put Democrat Bob Etheridge on a short list of vulnerable North Carolina congressmen. Voters have elected Etheridge to represent the state’s 2nd Congressional District seven times, most recently in 2008 by a two-thirds margin. By all appearances, he’s firmly ensconced.

But in a year that political experts predict will bring electoral misery to incumbents in Washington, anything can happen. Aided by video of an angry encounter between Etheridge and two young men on a Washington, D.C., sidewalk, the GOP thinks the once-safe district in central North Carolina is now in play heading into the midterm elections.

And it’s not the only one. State and national Republicans, buoyed by positive polling numbers, are targeting Tar Heel congressional races once considered safely in the Democrats’ camp.

Topping that list is the state’s 8th Congressional District, represented by freshman Democrat Larry Kissell. It’s the most likely pickoff for the GOP in November, even though polls show that Kissell enjoys a marginal lead over Republican Harold Johnson, a former sportscaster from Charlotte.

Johnson received national attention Sept. 16 when he was named one of 18 additions (and one of three Tar Heels) to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Guns” program.

CQ Politics notes that “Candidates are named to the program by meeting individualized benchmarks set by the committee, which include developing grass-roots support, fundraising and creating a media plan.”

The Cook Political Report puts the race in the “toss up” category, the Rothenberg Political Report as “lean” Democrat, and RealClearPolitics as “lean” Republican.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reportedly is funneling $1.3 million into advertising on Kissell’s behalf in the district. Johnson had raised just under a half-million dollars by June 30 compared to Kissell’s $704,119, according to federal elections filings.

Meanwhile, other Tar Heel Republicans are benefiting from a pro-business group’s influx of advertising cash. Americans for Job Security, an advocacy group tied to Republicans, plans to spend $500,000 in Etheridge’s district and in the 11th Congressional District, represented by Democrat Heath Shuler. The group is devoting the same amount to Kissell’s district.

Etheridge’s opponent, the Sarah Palin-endorsed Renee Ellmers, is lagging badly in fundraising. She had just $41,955 on hand at the end of June, compared to $1.2 million Etheridge has in his campaign kitty.

The ad buy is an opportunity for a GOP-allied group to pour money into races that are less likely to switch, while the Republican Party focuses cash on more competitive seats, said N.C. State University political science professor Steven Greene.

“It’s not likely that they pick up these seats, but they’re certainly well within the realm of possibility,” Greene said. “This is a good year to take a chance on it.”

Shuler’s Republican foe, Jeff Miller of Hendersonville, joined Johnson in the top tier in the NRCC’s “Young Guns” initiative.

Western Carolina University political science professor Gibbs Knotts called Miller “a compelling candidate” who’s been aided by the poor economy and President Obama’s lackluster approval rating. A Civitas poll from early August gave Shuler a slim 45-44 percent edge over Miller.

Ilario Pantano, a Republican candidate facing Democrat Mike McIntyre in the 7th Congressional District, also reached the top level in the Young Guns program. The NRCC is planning a $45,000 ad buy on Pantano’s behalf for the week of Sept. 17-23.

In an unusual twist, The New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog, run by political statistician Nate Silver, projects that GOP candidate B.J. Lawson has a one-in-four chance of beating longtime incumbent David Price in the 4th Congressional District.

The district — encompassing Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill — is strong Democratic territory. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one. Price first was elected to the seat in 1986 and has won every cycle except once in the mid-1990s.

“I think to a degree Nate Silver has proven himself, and you need to take this somewhat seriously,” Greene said. “But I would still be very surprised if David Price falls in that race.”

David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.

[Editor’s note: This story was updated after initial publication to reflect the addition of Johnson and Miller to the top tier of “Young Guns.”]