Trump, Robinson top their Democrat rivals in post-primary poll of NC voters

If North Carolina voters were casting their ballots for president and governor today, the Republican candidates would handily win, according to the latest results from the Carolina Journal poll.

Former president Donald Trump secured 45% support compared to 40% for President Joe Biden. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Mark Robinson captured 44% of the vote to Democrat Josh Stein’s 39%. Robinson is the current lieutenant governor and Stein the current attorney general.

“Trump’s lead is somewhat unsurprising given that he won the state in 2016 and 2020, by 3.6% and 1.3%, respectively. However, it’s still 238 days to Nov. 5 and we’ll be watching to see how this fluctuates,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “Both Josh Stein and Mark Robinson have shown the ability to win statewide races and raise money — the race for the Executive Mansion is the one to watch in North Carolina.”

The poll results, culled shortly after the North Carolina primary on March 5, surveyed 600 likely general election voters.

Based on the results, Republicans would also sweep several other key races for the 10-member executive body known as the Council of State. In the race for attorney general, Republican Dan Bishop snagged 41% of the vote to Democrat Jeff Jackson’s 39%.

For labor commissioner, Republican Luke Farley comes out on top with 42% of the vote to Democrat Braxton Winston’s 35%, while Republican Brad Briner secures 43% of the vote to Democrat Wesley Harris’ 37% in the race for state treasurer.

For insurance commissioner, incumbent Republican Mike Causey wins 43% of the vote to Democrat Natasha Marcus’ 37%. Meanwhile, in the race for superintendent of public instruction, Republican Michele Morrow narrowly edges out Democrat Mo Green 41% to 39%.

“Superintendent Catherine Truitt’s primary election loss and four open seats make 2024 a volatile year for the North Carolina Council of State,” Bryson said. “Aside from the drama of these individual races, there is also the question of whether Republicans can maintain their majority on the Council, which also makes policy decisions.” 

Republicans also improved their advantages on the generic legislative and congressional ballots. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would pick a GOP candidate for the General Assembly, while 43% would pick a Democrat. Similarly, 48% would pick a Republican for Congress compared to 43% picking a Democrat.

Biden’s approval rating remains deeply underwater, with 59% disapproving and 38% approving. Forty-nine percent approve of NC Gov. Roy Cooper and 43% disapprove.

The issues that are top of mind for voters are immigration at 25%, the economy at 18%, abortion at 13%, inflation at 10%, taxes and spending at 7%, public safety at 5%, education at 4%, and energy and environment at 3%.