Two Democratic members of North Carolina’s congressional delegation are ranked among the most likely to be picked off in 2024, according to a new analysis from Roll Call.
U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel of the 13th congressional district is ranked No. 2 and Rep. Kathy Manning of the 6th congressional district is No. 3. The only member of the U.S. House to edge out Nickel and Manning is embattled New York congressman Georgia Santos, who recently survived an expulsion vote in the House.
Redistricting maps passed by the General Assembly in October turned Wiley and Manning’s districts from light blue to likely Republican.
“After Republicans in the North Carolina legislature finalized new maps last month, Democratic Reps. Wiley Nickel and Kathy Manning take spots Nos. 2 and 3 because the new map drawn by Republicans leaves them in districts that would have backed Trump by double digits,” the Roll Call article notes.
According to the Civitas Partisan Index for 2024, two other congressional districts currently held by Democrats are considered vulnerable to change under the new maps. In the 12th congressional district, one-term Rep. Jeff Jackson has already announced that he won’t seek reelection and will instead seek to the Democratic nomination for attorney general. The new maps put Jackson in a redrawn 14th congressional district that is now in the likely Republican category.
Meanwhile, first term Rep. Don Davis of the 1st congressional district could face political headwinds in a district that is now a toss up.